Gale Warning 283, NWS Juneau, AK

176 
FZAK51 PAJK 092329
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-101400-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN OVER NIGHT AND
FILL ON MONDAY.  A WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST GULF TUE NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ011-101400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ012-101400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ013-101400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ021-101400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ022-101400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-101400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ032-101400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ033-101400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT
7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.MON...NW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-101400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-101400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT WEST 15 KT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE. SEAS
3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-101400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT...
EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
509 AM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EXITING
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND AN INCOMING
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. BIORKA RADAR DETECTS A
STRONG SHOWER BAND OVER THE CENTRAL OUTSIDE WATERS...HEADING
TOWARD SITKA AREA. THE INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL CRAFT WINDS/SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT
THIS TIME.

RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE OUTER WATERS AROUND THE
LOW. EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...INSTABILITIES HAVE
INCREASED TO LEAD POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OUTSIDE WATERS...INCLUDING SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE COAST TO NEAR
PORT ALEXANDER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAKE A GOOD
CONSENSUS FOR THE NEAR STATIONARY LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS
MORNING MOVES A LITTLE TO THE NORTH WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THE INCOMING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS LATE
THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SMALL CRAFT
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTSIDE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE IDEA THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE WAS WRITTEN USING. THIS LASTS INTO ABOUT THE MID
WEEK TIME FRAME. ISSUES WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY APPEAR HEADED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF RUSSIA AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN BERING SEA...AND TO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE GENERAL RESULT
OF THIS DIGGING FEATURE IS THE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST
REGION.

A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE TAP
TO THE MID TROPICS OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND WE HAVE THE
REMAINS OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WITH
WEAK TROUGH PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THERE... AND MINOR CONNECTION WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF TO SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA.

THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE BERING  WILL BE SPREADING ITS
FRONTAL AND TRIPLE POINT INTO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY AND COLD
FRONT WILL BE TRAILING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOISTURE
PLUME BASED ON SATELLITE READINGS HAS A FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE PLUME
WITH IT...THEN IT TAPS BACK TO MID TROPICS ON LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY
WITH DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH.

LATE TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH ITS TRAILING FRONTAL
BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A WAVE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG IT TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW MOVING SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVIER THAN NORMAL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE BETTER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK AND
THEN AVERAGE OR SO LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND.

.HYDROLOGY..A COUPLE OF THE STREAMS ARE FLIRTING WITH BANK FULL
DUE TO THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. MONTANA CREEK WITH BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE SPIKED UP TO JUST OVER 14.5 FT...WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT TO START SPREADING SOME WATER OVER THE ROAD IN JUNEAU.
THIS LASTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THEN THE WATER DRAINS AWAY
QUICKLY. THE OTHER STREAM/RIVER THREATENING SOME FLOODING IN THE
NEAR FUTURE IT THE TAIYA RIVER NEAR SKAGWAY. WATER LEVELS ABOUT
HALF FOOT BELOW 16 FEET WHICH IS WHEN WATER BEGINS TO SPREAD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHILKOOT TRAIL. THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.
A FEW OF THE SMALL QUICK STREAMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY
COULD SPIKE AS A MOISTURE LADEN SHOWER SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
THEN THERE SHOULD BE A DAY OR TWO TO RELAX BEFORE THE NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO STREAMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF
HEAVIER RAINS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043.

&&

AHN/BEZENEK