Gale Warning 280, NWS Juneau, AK

910 
FZAK51 PAJK 061135
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-070100-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ011-070100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SE
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-070100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-070100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-070100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-070100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-070100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-070100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-070100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-070100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-070100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-070100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 6 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKDT WED SEP 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM PAWG-PAKT AND CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY
THIS EVENING. A MODERATE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM YAKUTAT
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TONIGHT. A FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY.

 OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM PAYA SOUTHWEST UNDER 140 KT SW JET
HAS DEEP MOISTURE AND IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BUT WILL KEEP RAIN IN FORECAST AS OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
WITH LOW LEVEL STABILIZING AS RIDGE BUILDS IN.

 IT APPEARS THAT THE GALES ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL BARRIER JET
ARE DIMINISHING WITH EVEN SATELLITE SHOWING THIS FEATURE
DISSIPATING. HAVE SOLID SMCR WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL AND STRONG WIND
HEADLINE FOR PAGY INTO EARLY EVENING WITH 10 MB CYXY-PAJN
GRADIENT. ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL EASE QUICKLY. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
COAST MOUNTAINS. IN THE GULF WILL START OFF NEAR SHORE WINDS SE
AROUND 20KT THAT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN EVENING. OFFSHORE SW
WINDS REACH 25 KT. A BUILDING WEST SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS UPWARDS OF
10 FEET ON THURSDAY.

 FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND THINK
WILL SEE SOME MODERATE RAIN HERE. FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT DROPS
SOUTH WITH DILUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WHATS LEFT OF THE
FRONT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY
EARLY THURSDAY. ALL AREAS WILL BE IN WESTERLY FLO PARTLY CLOUDY IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR SE CORNER. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY
NORTH AND LIKELY FOR PAYA ON THURSDAY.

 MODELS WERE SIMILAR TODAY. GFS PRESSURE GRADIENT MATCHED UP BEST
WITH OBS AND WAS USED TO GENERATE PRESSURE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...AT MID LEVELS: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRACK TO THE EAST. FIRST IN A SERIES OF
WAVES EXTENDING FROM PARENT LOW OVER THE NORTHERN AK INTERIOR WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AK GULF THEN MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY WHILE A LOW DROPS OVER THE BERING SEA OVER
THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY. BY THE WEEKEND
THIS MID LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURES IN THE AK
GULF. THE THE LOW CENTER DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. FROM
THE START OF THE WEEK ANOTHER MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

AT SURFACE: WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL SEE A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH CLEARING MAINLY DUE TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF. ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE RIDGE A LOW IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET WILL
MOVE UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AK
GULF. EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN BUT
THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL PICK UP WINDS TO NEAR GALES
WITH RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE
POSITION OF THE LOW WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DETERMINATION IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST WINDS. AS THIS
FEATURE WEAKENS A SECOND LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE BERING SEA AND IN THE LEFT JET EXIT REGION
WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AK GULF WITH THE CENTER NEARING CAPE
DECISION. RAIN WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS HOWEVER BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL HAVE A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL FOR A
DAY...IN TIME FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY TO BRING RAIN TO THE
PANHANDLE.

 THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN MODELS AND NORTH AMERICAN
MODELS WITH THE LOW FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET SHOWED A DEEPER
LOW POSITIONED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE NAM/GFS HAD A
WEAKER CENTER LOCATED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF DID
POSITION THE LOW CENTER A BIT CLOSER TO THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT STILL NOT A STRAIGHT CONSENSUS. WHILE BOTH SOLUTIONS
INDICATE RAIN FOR THE PANHANDLE WITH GFS SOLUTION BRINGS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF/UKMET INDICATE STRONGER WINDS DUE TO
THE DEEPER CENTER. AT THIS TIME DID NOT PUSH WINDS QUITE TO GALES
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. DECIDED TO USE THE 12Z
ECMWF TO UPDATE GRIDS TO DAY 4. FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM MODELS WERE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TH POSITION OF THE LOW HOWEVER THE ECMWF
WAS STILL STRONGER THAN THE GFS. USED NEW HPC FOR AN ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE. DO EXPECT THE FALL
PATTERN TO CONTINUE TO EMERGE SO EXPECT HIGHER SEAS...STRONGER
WINDS AND MORE RAIN TO BE THE NORM.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. WHILE THERE IS FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MESOSCALE DETAILS AMONG THE
MODELS AND BETWEEN RUNS ID RATHER POOR. EXPECT THAT THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WINDS...WILL CHANGE AS THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-036-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

MM/PRB