Gale Warning 276, NWS Juneau, AK

443 
FZAK51 PAJK 021952 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-030100-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE OUTER COAST ON SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-030100-
GLACIER BAY-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-030100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 


$$

PKZ013-030100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-030100-
ICY STRAIT-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-030100-
CROSS SOUND-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-030100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-030100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ033-030100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-030100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-030100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-030100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1152 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
234 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH A MODERATE
STRENGTH FRONT POISED TO COME THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WIND AND PRE-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS ARE ALREADY HERE.
WINDS AT JUNEAU HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 30 KT MOST OF THE MORNING,
THE OUTER COAST HAS ALSO SEEN STEADILY INCREASING WINDS, AND
WINDS JUST STARTED GUSTING AT SKAGWAY AND HAINES. AS FOR RAIN, IT
HAS AS OF NOON ONLY GOTTEN AS FAR EAST AS GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, AND
ANGOON.

 FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH OCCURRING IN
SOME PLACES. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL STILL BE BLOWING IN CLARENCE
STRAIT THIS EVENING AS WELL. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY AROUND YAKUTAT AND NORTH AND
WEST OF ICE STRAIT AND GLACIER BAY WITH AROUND ONE INCH OR MORE.

 BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS AND RAIN WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO CANADA. BEHIND IT W TO SW WINDS WILL BE
TAKING OVER AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE THAT MIGHT NOT SEE THE WINDS
CALM DOWN WOULD BE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. THERE WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 15 TO 20 KT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE
REFORMING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON INCREASES THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AND THE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN FREQUENCY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE IS WEAKER THEN THE CURRENT
SYSTEM SO I AM NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH WIND IN THE GULF TOMORROW.

MODEL AGREEMENT WAS DECENT TODAY WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP HERE AND THERE. DECIDED ON STICKING WITH THE EC AND NAM
FOR PRESSURE AND WIND AS GFS STILL SEEMED TOO FLAT WITH THE
PRESSURE TROUGH OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM. USED MORE EC AND GFS FOR
POPS AS NAM SEEMED TOO SLOW WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...AN OCCLUDING FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
SUNDAY NIGHT MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY. A WAVE ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT FINALLY KICKING EAST ON TUESDAY. A
RIDGE REBUILDS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO YAKUTAT
AND THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IN MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE WARM SECTOR PUSHES OVER THE PANHANDLE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES BY
MONDAY MORNING. INITIALLY WINDS ARE BELOW SMCR LEVELS BUT AS
FRONT OCCLUDES, A SOLID SE SMCR DEVELOPS THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS. THESE WINDS EASE AHEAD OF TRAILING WAVE AND SHIFT TO SW 20
KT ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS IN SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS COULD INCREASE TO A SE SMCR AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH MON NIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ALL 1 TO
LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN TRADITIONALLY WETTER LOCATIONS IS
EXPECTED MON-TUE.

RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER SE ALASKA WILL
HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH UP LYNN CANAL FOR A SMCR. WED
APPEARS TO BE DRIEST DAY BUT STILL HAVE A CHANCE IN ZONES AS THEY
LINGER IN THE MORNING AND IN ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM SECTOR OF NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FRONT APPEARS TO STARTS OUT QUITE
MOIST NEAR YAKUTAT WITH STRONG SW JET BUT BECOMES LESS SO AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH RIDGE AND WEAKENS.

HAD GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST MINOR INTENSITY DIFFERENCES.
USED THE NAM TO UPDATE GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY AND MADE LITTLE TO NO
CHANGES BEYOND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-033-035-036-041-042.

&&

EAL/MM