Gale Warning 274, NWS Juneau, AK

358 
FZAK67 PAJK 242304
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 24 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-251400-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 24 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE THROUGH
EARLY TUE. A WEATHER FRONT MOVING EAST WILL GENERATE STORM FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF ON TUESDAY AND CROSS THE PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-251400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 24 2012 

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W OF 140 W...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. E OF 140 W...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE
25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
157 PM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.SHORT TERM...WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY BRINGING RAIN AND SOME BREEZY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, AND HYDER HAVE BEEN IN
RAIN AND SOME FOG MOST OF THE MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND
3 TO 5 MILES. SOME GUSTS TO 15 KT HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT
HYDABURG AND ANNETTE. BEHIND THE FRONT SHOWERS ARE THE RULE WITH
A LINE OF SHOWERS RECENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SITKA, ANGOON, HOONAH,
AND JUNEAU. OTHERWISE SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
MOST PLACES.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EVENTUALLY CHANGING THE STEADY RAIN OVER TO SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO RELENT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AS WELL. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE GULF AND OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RIDGE WILL BE RATHER FLAT TO START OUT WITH
SO ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP FREQUENT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AND AND EARLY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ALSO KEEPING THE SHOWERS COMING IS A UPPER
TROUGH, CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE LOW IN THE NW GULF, THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THIS WILL
MAINLY ENHANCE THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH THE RIDGE SHARPENING UP AND THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO CANADA SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN MOST PLACES.

AS FOR CLOUDS, MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE NORM FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE SHOWERS STILL AROUND. FOR THE
SOUTH THE DRY SLOT COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BREAK UP THE
CLOUDS A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW FOR THE SOUTH.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
IN MOST PLACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY WHERE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING OUT OF THE SOUTH. THESE WINDS
WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
YUKON WEAKENS TONIGHT. BY MIDDAY MONDAY THE WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
INCREASING AS THE BUILDING RIDGE INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL THIS EVENING AND THEN FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT LEAST.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF MAINLY EC
AND SOME NAM FOR UPDATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK EXPECTED FOR THE GULF OF
ALASKA AS A SERIES OF STORM FORCE LOW CENTERS MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF JUST EAST OF KODIAK.

THE FIRST 975 MB LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF MONDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY AND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST
INTO THE EASTERN GULF EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO MAX GALES TO
POSSIBLE A STORM FOR PKZ051-052. WITH LOW STAYING IN WESTERN GULF
AND FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ONSHORE DO NOT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE AS STRONG FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA BUT STILL EXPECT MAX GALE FOR
CLARENCE STRAIT NEAR LINCOLN ROCK AND SOLID SMCR ELSEWHERE. WILL
PROBABLY NEED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR PUBLIC ZONES ALONG THE
COAST AND SOUTHERN. RAIN WITH FRONT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY BUT SINCE
IT IS MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY DO EXPECT ANY HYDRO ISSUES
WITH IT.

SECOND LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN ON TUESDAY THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENS TO AROUND 955 MB AS IT LIFTS NORTH TO BE JUST EAST OF
KODIAK WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NE AND FILLS
THURSDAY BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR CAPE SUCKLING FRIDAY. THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AGAIN EXPECT MAX
GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE
ADVERTISED TO INCREASE INTO 20-25 FOOT RANGE. WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS FOR INNER CHANNELS AND COULD SEE A STORM
FOR CLARENCE STRAIT BUT WITH LOW CENTER FILLING WINDS SHOULD DROP
OFF AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH 2 INCHES COMMON AND UP
TO 4 INCHES IN WETTER LOCATIONS.

SECOND WRAP OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR MAX GALES ACROSS NE GULF AND EVEN
FOR THE INNER CHANNELS WITH A FAVORABLE GRADIENT ORIENTATION.

MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER LAST FEW
RUNS AND STARTING TO SHOW A TIGHT CLUSTER FOR LOW POSITION AND ALL
SHOWING MIN PRES IN 950-960 MB RANGE. USED THE EC FOR 1 ST LOW TUE
AND WED THEN HPC GRIDS DAYS 4-8.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-036-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

EAL/MM