Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2012
Gale Warning 270, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Aug 31, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT. It was in force for 24 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 31, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 1, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
815 FZAK52 PAJK 312329 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-011400- 400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH SAT. A MODERATE STRENGTH FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND INTO CANADA BY SUN. $$ PKZ041-011400- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. .SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ042-011400- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. .SAT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ043-011400- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. .SAT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ051-011400- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ052-011400- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN. .SAT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$
3 follow-up statements
410 FZAK52 PAJK 011147 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-020100- 400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OUTER COAST ON SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING. $$ PKZ041-020100- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ042-020100- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ043-020100- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ051-020100- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ052-020100- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$
712 FZAK52 PAJK 012145 AAA CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 145 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-020100- 145 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OUTER COAST ON SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING. $$ PKZ041-020100- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 145 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ042-020100- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 145 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ043-020100- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 145 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$ PKZ051-020100- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 145 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ052-020100- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 145 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$
896 FZAK52 PAJK 012331 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ099-021400- 400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A FRONT ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL MOVE INTO CANADA BY SUN MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE SAT NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT. $$ PKZ041-021400- DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION- 400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ042-021400- CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE- 400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE EVENING. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ043-021400- CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER- 400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$ PKZ051-021400- CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE- 400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE EVENING. RAIN. .SUN...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$ PKZ052-021400- ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING- 400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE EVENING. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Aug 31, 3:53 PM AKDT, 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 3:53 PM AKDT, 7 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
353 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012
.SHORT TERM...MOST REGIONS IN THE PANHANDLE ARE ENJOYING A VERY
NICE DAY TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE
TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AROUND ANNETTE
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT (WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
PLAGUED THAT AREA THIS MORNING AND SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE
STILL AROUND) AND WEST OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER (LEADING FRONTAL BANDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE ALREADY BRINGING RAIN TO YAKUTAT AND
GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT THAT AREA). WINDS AND WAVES
ARE GENERALLY LOW AS WELL. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS AS WELL.
BUOY 82 NEAR CAPE SUCKLING HAS BEEN REPORTING 30 KT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND 9 FT SEAS DUE TO THE BARRIER JET THAT HAS ALREADY SET
UP THERE.
SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WE TRANSITION FROM A
GENERALLY CLOUDLESS AND DRY SCENARIO TO A CLOUDY, BREEZY AND WET
SCENARIO BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH HOW A
WAVE THAT IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT, CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF KODIAK, WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND
SAT. RESENT MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THIS. THE
12Z NAM FAVORED A SLOWER AND MORE EASTWARD TRACK SENDING THE LOW
UP TO NEAR YAKUTAT BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS WENT FOR A FASTER
AND FARTHER WEST TRACK SENDING IT UP TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
BY SAT MORNING. THE ECMWF WENT FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH
WITH THE 18Z NAM LATER JUMPING ON BOARD. GENERALLY FAVORED THE
NAM AND ECMWF ON THIS AS I THOUGHT THE GFS WAS TOO FAST AND WAS
TOO FLAT WITH THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT FARTHER EAST ESPECIALLY
GIVEN HOW DECENTLY ORGANIZED THE WAVE LOOKS ON SATELLITE AT THE
MOMENT.
THE RESULTING FORECAST HAS INCREASING CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH RAIN CONTINUING
AT YAKUTAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS
THEY WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES OVER A CERTAIN
AREA. THE SOONER THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES THE WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE. I AM GENERALLY GOING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF TEMPS
TONIGHT AS I THINK THE CLEARER SKIES WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL
EARLY MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF CHATHAM STRAIT. TOMORROW'S HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THEN TODAY'S GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP. THE MARINE LAYER AND FOG WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN
TONIGHT TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL.
INTO TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE GULF AND
PANHANDLE WITH GALES FORMING ALONG THE OUTSIDE WATERS TOMORROW
MORNING. WIND FOR THE OUTER COASTAL AND SOUTHERN LAND AREAS I
DON'T THINK WILL BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES TOMORROW BUT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR
SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND, HYDABURG, ANNETTE AND KETCHIKAN. INNER
CHANNEL WINDS WILL MAINLY CONSIST OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR
CLARENCE STRAIT, SUMNER, SOUTHERN CHATHAM, CROSS SOUND, AND ICE
STRAIT TOMORROW. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
INNER CHANNELS AT SOME POINT SAT.
AS FOR RAIN, MOST OF THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT YAKUTAT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENERGY FROM THE
FRONTAL WAVE. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE THE PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO START UP UNTIL TOMORROW WITH THE OUTER COAST GETTING
IT SAT MORNING AND THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE GETTING INTO IT BY
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU GO WITH INCREASING
DISTANCE FROM THE MAIN FRONTAL ENERGY. STILL EXPECTING UPWARDS
HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH TOTAL IN NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. AFTER THE
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO WESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT...
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
CROSSING THE GULF THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE IN THE WESTERN GULF TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER LOW SUGGESTING CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE IN THE STRENGTH AND
MOVEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES. MODELS ARE HINTING ABOUT AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE ORIENTATION
AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE.
GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED FOR THE MIDDLE PERIODS...BUT THEN A
TRANSITION TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR LABOR DAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. SMALL CRAFT CATEGORY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTSIDE WATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN WET WITH WESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-033-035-036-041-053.
&&
EAL/RCLThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 4:00 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 27 hr | |
| Aug 31, 4:00 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 4 days | |
| Sep 1, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 7 days | |
| Sep 1, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Sep 1, 1:25 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 15 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.