Gale Warning 266, NWS Juneau, AK

315 
FZAK51 PAJK 290300 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-292100-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS SE TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY WED MORNING AND INTO DIXON
ENTRANCE WED AFTERNOON. THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE YUKON WILL
DRIFT EAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TO KEEP STRONG WINDS FROM
OUTFLOW AREAS. 

$$

PKZ011-292100-
GLACIER BAY-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF
FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS NEAR THE ENTRANCE. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
ENTRANCE. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-292100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING. RAIN IN
THE EVENING. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-292100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-292100-
ICY STRAIT-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS THIS EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-292100-
CROSS SOUND-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. AREAS OF FOG LATE. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-292100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-292100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-292100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN IN THE
EVENING.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS
OF FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-292100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-292100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-292100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
700 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
WINDS DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. AREAS OF FOG LATE.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. AREAS OF FOG IN THE
MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

923 
FZAK51 PAJK 290439 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-292245-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS SE TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY WED MORNING AND INTO DIXON
ENTRANCE WED AFTERNOON. THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE YUKON WILL
DRIFT EAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON TO KEEP STRONG WINDS FROM
OUTFLOW AREAS. 

$$

PKZ011-292245-
GLACIER BAY-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS NEAR THE ENTRANCE.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
ENTRANCE. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-292245-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT BY LATE.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-292245-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-292245-
ICY STRAIT-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-292245-
CROSS SOUND-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. AREAS OF FOG LATE. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-292245-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN IN
THE EVENING.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-292245-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN IN
THE EVENING.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-292245-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 2 FT. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS
OF FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-292245-
FREDERICK SOUND-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-292245-
SUMNER STRAIT-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-292245-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
838 PM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. AREAS OF FOG IN THE
MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
557 AM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...1003 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE NE GULF WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY AND CROSS OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. FRONT ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED 70 KT SOUTHERLY JET MAX CURRENTLY PAJN-PASI LINE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH TODAY AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR
AREA BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL OVER COASTAL
WATERS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER BY WED
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE ALREADY POKING INTO SOUTHERN YUKON WITH A
1024 MB HIGH CENTER DROPPING SE TO NEAR BURWASH BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

 A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT MOST AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE SE OF FRONT TO PICK UP SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE RAIN
AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THIS BUT WILL SEE LIGHT MISTY RAIN RETURN WITH THE
APPROACH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS SO FAR BUT THINK COULD GO
A BIT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS FRONT ALOFT BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL AND DWELLS LONGER.

 SOUTHERLY SMCR WINDS WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ARE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH THROUGH NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BUT JUST DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN. BEHIND THIS WIND DROP OFF QUICKLY. ONCE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N OR NW AND
AGAIN INCREASE TO SMCR LEVELS OVER THE WATER. STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH FAVORED INTERIOR PASSES AND IN PAHN AND PAGY
TONIGHT. A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST 20 KT WIND OVER GULF BECOMES NW
25-30 KT THIS EVENING.

 CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FAR NW THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WITH
CLEARING WILL SEE SOME FOG AND COOLER TEMPS THAT REACH LOWER 40S
AT MANY PLACES AND INTO MID 30S FOR PAYA. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO
AROUND 3000 FEET OVER THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND USED THE NAM
TO UPDATE GRIDS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...BY WEDNESDAY THE REMNANTS OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AK PANHANDLE...DRIFTING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE YUKON HIGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION PERIOD OF DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CLEARING SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. MEANWHILE IN THE AK GULF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACK TO THE EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY AND SKIES CLEAR THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING A
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER IN THE GULF UNDER THE DEVELOPING STABLE
AIR MASS. AS OF NOW KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER JUST ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. BY THE END OF THE WEAK A SHORT WAVE AND OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE AK INTERIOR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AK GULF REACHING THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. AT THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A CLOSED
LOW WILL FORM...TRACK NORTHEASTWARD...THEN MERGE WITH THE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHER GULF. THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TOWARD THE YUKON THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL
SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THIS FRONT AND
DEVELOPING LOW...HOWEVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL NOT BE DRY.
INDICATIONS OF 6 HOUR QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF ONE HALF AND INCH
WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER AN INCH. THESE AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND
HIGHLY ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTION. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK LOOKING AT ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BUILDING INTO
THE AK GULF...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE BERING SEA. LABOR DAY ITSELF
MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT AS THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE SPEED OF THE FRONT KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE
PANHANDLE.

 WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE
FROM THE NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DAY TIME HIGHS
SHOULD NOT REACH MORE THAN THE MID 60S. AS WE RETURN TO NORMAL
CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS IN THE AK GULF WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING LOW FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN AROUND
20 KTS OR PICK UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS AND PANHANDLE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN...DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY...REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE
THROUGH THURSDAY THEN PICKING UP OVER THE WEEKEND.

 MODELS START OUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT. NAM KEPT THE HIGHER WINDS IN
THE AK GULF A BIT LONGER THAN THEN GFS OR ECMWF...BUT ALL WERE
SHOWING A SIMILAR TREND. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF HAS REMAINED FASTER WITH THE FRONT THEN THE GFS
AND ALSO SHOWS A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THUS THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATING STRONGER WINDS IN THE GULF FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS WAS KEEPING HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF MOVED THIS HIGHER
AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. LIKED THE ECMWF
INITIALIZATION FOR PRESSURE BUT LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM FOR
WIND SPEEDS AT THE START OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR THE MID WEEK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...NEW MODEL RUNS
MOVED THE AXIS A BIT FURTHER WEST. KEPT WITH HPC FOR THE WEEKEND
DUE TO VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING
LOW. EXPECT THE FORECAST TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS MODELS FALL
MORE IN LINE...ESPECIALLY WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BELOW AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-022-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

MM/PRB