Gale Warning 264, NWS Juneau, AK

021 
FZAK51 PAJK 280455 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-281600-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A RIDGE OVER SE AK WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DRIFTS INTO THE NE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND WEAKEN BY TUE AFTERNOON. A HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE YUKON ON TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-281600-
GLACIER BAY-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT...SUBSIDING
LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO
3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-281600-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-281600-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-281600-
ICY STRAIT-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-281600-
CROSS SOUND-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-281600-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 4
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
SUBSIDING
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-281600-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-281600-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-281600-
FREDERICK SOUND-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-281600-
SUMNER STRAIT-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-281600-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
855 PM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
539 AM AKDT MON AUG 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF TODAY AND DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT. A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY THIS EVENING
THEN START TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT.

 CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS TODAY NOT ALREADY
OVERCAST. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO YAKUTAT THIS MORNING, ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT. INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG WIND FAVORED TERRAIN TONIGHT AS
JET STREAK PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. 6 HOUR AMOUNTS PROGGED TO REACH
ONE HALF INCH - AND IN SOME PLACES ONE INCH IN 12 HOURS - FOR PAYA
AREA THIS EVENING AND ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT.
EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER OVER GULF WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND LEFTOVER OF
A FRONT WRAPPING NORTHWARD WILL ALSO BE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS.
MARINE PUSH COULD BRING CIGS DOWN TO LOW MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR
FOR COASTAL AREAS

 SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN LOCALLY
REACHING SMCR LEVELS IN CROSS SOUND AND SOUTHEAST GULF. SHOULD SEE
NW WIND PICK UP ACROSS SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS LATER TODAY. NORTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
LYNN CANAL INCREASES BY THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT 30 KT. ONCE
LOW/DEVELOPING TROUGH START TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT THIS WILL WEAKEN
AND COULD TURN TO LIGHT NORTHERLY IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
OVER THE GULF HAVE A GENERALLY WESTERLY AROUND 20 KT THAT GAINS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW IN NORTHEAST GULF BUT GOES
BACK TO WESTERLY AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE AND EVEN INCREASES TO SMCR
IN OFFSHORE WATERS.

 GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. USED THE NAM FOR
PRESSURE AND WIND BUT ALSO INCORPORATED IN THE GFS AND EC FOR MASS
FIELDS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AK PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND TRANSITION TO
PERIODIC SHOWERS. MEANWHILE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AK GULF. AS THE RIDGE DEVELOP
WILL SEE A CLEARING TREND FOR THE PANHANDLE WHICH SHOULD LAST FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE AK GULF AND
COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY SEE MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING
UNDER THE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE AK INTERIOR WITH SHORT
WAVE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AK GULF BY THURSDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTION IF THE SURFACE FEATURE IN THE GULF WILL DEVELOP INTO
A CLOSED LOW OR REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. WITH WAY EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE MODELS STILL HAVE
SOME TIMING ISSUES ON THIS ADVANCING WAVE. FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF 6 HOUR QPF VALUES GREATER THEN ONE
HALF INCH DUE TO POSSIBLE TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION.

 WINDS IN THE AK GULF WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS.
NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE GULF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FROM PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING
FROM HIGH IN THE YUKON WITH A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AK PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THE YUKON HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH
AND IS REPLACED BY A LOW FROM THE AK INTERIOR.

 MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL FAIRLY MINOR FOR THE START OF THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST. LIKED THE GFS INITIALIZATION BUT MAINLY THOUGH THE
GFS HAS SHOWN THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPICTION OF THE DEVELOPING SHORT
WAVE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING FASTER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE LOW INTO THE
PANHANDLE A GOOD 12 HOURS AHEAD OF THE GFS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SHOWING GREATER RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS. KEPT WITH A GFS BLEND
THROUGH DAY 3...THEN KEPT WITH INHERITED HPC GRIDS. AS THE 00Z GFS
WAA VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST CHANGES THROUGH OUT THE ENTIRE
LONG RANGE FORECAST WERE MINOR. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
RESPECT TO SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER WHICH IS
ALWAYS TRICKY. LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO
TIMING OF FEATURES.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-036-041-042-052.

&&

MM/PRB