Gale Warning 262, NWS Juneau, AK

385 
FZAK52 PAJK 312344
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-011400-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE
THROUGH WED. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
BY WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-011400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-011400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-011400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-011400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL IN
THE EVENING. 
.WED...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-011400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
542 AM AKDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOC FRONTAL BAND IS CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS WITH THE FRONT WITH SIMILAR GUSTS NEAR
CAPE DECISION. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO
30 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND RAINFALL WILL INCREASE...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVY RAIN WITH 30KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN INSIDE WATERS AND UP TO 25 MPH OVER LAND. MODELS
INDICATE WINDS OF 35-45 KT AT 850MB (4500-5000FT) ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES OVER LAND. THEREFORE SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD MIX
DOWN WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF WIND
SHEAR FOR AVIATION PURPOSES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

 RAIN WILL LET UP FIRST IN THE YAKUTAT AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND CAUSES A NELY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THAT AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING A MUCH DRIER FORECAST FOR THERE
AND EVEN A SOME CLEARING. HAVE NOT GONE THAT FAR AS THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS THERE THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT
SOME EASING THROUGH THE DAY TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OTHERWISE RAIN AND WINDS WILL
EASE THROUGH THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT POST FRONT.
BY THIS TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SE TO BE
OFF THE CAPE DECISION REGION AND BEGUN TO WEAKEN. STREAMLINES
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE WINDS THROUGH THE INSIDE WATERS WILL BE
S-SELY WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER WHEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TOWARDS THE LOW MAY TAKE OVER AND GIVE THE
WINDS A SLIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR A SHORT TIME FRAME.
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WITH THOSE WINDS THEN
FLOWING OUT THROUGH ICY STRAIT.

 USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR PRESSURE WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
GFS FOR ITS GOOD INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY. ADJUSTED WINDS
UP WITH THE FRONT AND MADE OTHER CHANGES FOR LOCAL EFFECTS.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 .HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
TODAY WILL CAUSE AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE QUICKLY.
CURRENTLY ALL THE RIVERS ACROSS THE IMPACTED AREA ARE WELL BELOW
ACTION STAGE AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO OUT OF THEIR BANKS. SOME
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER WILL RESULT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MUD SLIDES WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED.

 AS 500 AM AKDT THE TAKU RIVER STAGE WAS AT 41.19 FEET WHICH IS
BELOW THE ACTION STAGE OF 42 FEET. THE RATE AT WHICH THE RIVER IS
RISING HAS SLOWED OVERNIGHT INDICATING THAT LAKE NO LAKE HAS
EMPTIED AND THE RIVER WILL CREST THROUGH THE MORNING. ONCE THE
RIVER CRESTS IT WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BACK TO NORMAL
LEVELS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH ONE
SYSTEM EXITING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ANOTHER JUST STARTING
TO ENTER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN BETWEEN IS SOME DRIER WEATHER
BROUGHT ABOUT BY A WEAK RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.
THE DRIER WEATHER DOES NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURS. THIS SYSTEM TAKES THE FORM
OF AN OPEN WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW THAT IS MOVING
INTO THE ALASKAN INTERIOR. RAIN WILL START UP FOR YAKUTAT AS SOON
AS WED NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
BY THURS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINLY BE A NORTHERN PANHANDLE
EVENT DUE TO THE JET ORIENTATION DIRECTING MOST OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE RATHER THEN THE SOUTH. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE THE SW JET AND THE FRONT
WEAKENS AND THE MOISTURE PLUME GETS CUT OFF.

 I AM NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH WIND WITH THIS FEATURE AS COMPARED TO
THE TUES SYSTEM. MAINLY EXPECTING 20 KT OR LESS IN MOST PLACES
DUE TO THE DISTANCE OF THE FEATURE FROM THE PARENT LOW. THE ONLY
PLACE THAT MIGHT GET TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MIGHT BE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF NEAR CAPE SUCKLING WHERE A WEAK BARRIER JET MAY SET
UP.

 FOLLOWING THIS, THE RIDGE THAT WAS TRYING TO SET ITSELF UP IN
THE GULF BEFORE THURS SYSTEM WILL FINALLY GET SOMETHING OF A
FOOTHOLD AS ITS AXIS SHIFT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SAT.
WEATHER OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL DRY OUT A BIT AS THE RIDGE
APPEARS TO BE JUST SHARP ENOUGH THAT THE PANHANDLE ENDS UP UNDER
NW FLOW RATHER THEN W FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH STAYING
POWER THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVES THAT
PART OF THE FORECAST IN DOUBT.

 MODEL AGREEMENT STARTS DIVERGING OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR US IS IN HOW FAR
SOUTH A UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE BERING STRAIT ON SAT WILL
GET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT GFS IS SLOWER WITH IT BUT DIGS IT
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO WASHINGTON STATE BY EARLY MONDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND IS FASTER AND DOESN'T DIG IT THAT FAR SOUTH.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING WITH THIS
FEATURE IN RESENT RUNS SO DECIDED NOT TO DO MANY CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS TONIGHT TO WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO SETTLE DOWN A
BIT. MID RANGE FORECAST UPDATES WERE ACCOMPLISHED USING THE GFS
WITH A BIT OF THE NAM BLENDED IN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND THEN DROPS TO AVERAGE AFTER
THAT POINT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031>036-041>043-051.

&&

HANNON/EAL