Gale Warning 237, NWS Juneau, AK

014 
FZAK52 PAJK 111751 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
951 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120100-
951 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STALLED GALE FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW LIFTS
NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH SAT.   

$$

PKZ041-120100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
951 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-120100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
951 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 19 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-120100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
951 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 20 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-120100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
951 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND BECOMING 45 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 22
FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-120100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
951 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
605 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STALLED WARM
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH A DEVELOPING LOW/WAVE LIFTING
OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS MORNING. THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TURN TO THE NW
TONIGHT TO BE NEAR PWS BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DIMINISHING
TREND IN THE WINDS LATER THIS MORNING BUT AS THE DEVELOPING LOW
LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

 THERE ARE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OCCURRING THIS
MORNING NEAR PAGY AND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AS THE
INITIAL WARM FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE STRONG WINDS GUSTS
NEAR PAYA WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT THE
STRONG WINDS NEAR PAGY AND PAEL WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. MOST
OTHER AREAS OVER THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME AREAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS SEEING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SE AK WILL PERSIST AND SHARPEN SOME
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTH. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WAVE LIFTS DRIFTS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF. SO WITH THAT SAID GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THEM PEAKING LATE. THERE WILL BE A DIMINISH TREND IN THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS
THE WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND REORIENT THE GRADIENT TO BE A ESE/WNW.
SO WILL DROP THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS TEND TO TRY TO PUSH THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO EASTERN FASTER THAT WHAT HAPPENS. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

 OVER MARINE WATERS GALES OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH SOME BUT WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO SOLID GALES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT TO BE AROUND 14 TO 20 FT. OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS GALES WILL PERSIST OVER LYNN CANAL THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. THE CROSS SOUND AREA WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SEE GALES BUT INCREASE TO 40 KT LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE E/W PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS. THE REST OF THE INNER
CHANNEL WATERS WILL SEE THE SMALL CRAFTS WIND FROM THE SOUTH
PERSIST AND THEN INCREASE TO GALES THROUGH TONIGHT.

 RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS WITH A LONG FETCH OVER THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH AND
ENHANCING OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO
4 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR PAYA AND
PAEL. THE PAGY AREA WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN WITH THE STRONG
WINDS CONTINUING BUT BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN NEAR 2000 FEET
SO THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WILL SEE A 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

 HERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT 24HRS
AND MADE SMALL CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. USED A
BLEND OF THE EC/GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS EAST INTO CANADA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE FEATURE NICELY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY...PUSHING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY.

 THE PARENT LOW OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO
NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY SATURDAY MORNING AND STRONG SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE COAST AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
STRONG WINDS A LITTLE LONGER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE.

 ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
MOVE NORTH ACROSS PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHER QPF VALUES FOCUSING OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. THE MARITIME FESTIVAL IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU WILL BE WET
WITH POTENTIAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

 THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF...EXPANDING EASTWARD. MODEL SPREADS BECOME LARGER AT THIS
POINT AND UNCERTAINTY STARTS GROWING THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. MAINTAINED THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS MUCH AS INHERITED
DUE TO THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY. IN GENERAL...WITH THE BUILDING
OF HIGH PRESSURE...RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TO TAPER OFF LATE
TUESDAY AND IMPROVING WEATHER SHOULD BE GRANTED FOR THE PANHANDLE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ017-020-021-025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051>053.

&&

ABJ/AHN