Gale Warning 222, NWS Juneau, AK

965 
FZAK67 PAJK 291145
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-300100-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN SOUTHERN GULF WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE GULF COAST BY TUE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE WED. 

$$

PKZ310-300100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NORTHEAST PORTION...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN. SOUTHWEST PORTION...SE
WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NORTHEAST PORTION...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. SOUTHWEST PORTION...SE WIND 25 KT
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

671 
FZAK67 PAJK 292330
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-301400-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT REACHING THE GULF COAST BY LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
PANHANDLE WED. THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL DRIFT IN THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-301400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 29 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NORTHEAST PORTION...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
LATE. SEAS 14 FT. SOUTHWEST PORTION...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO
20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SE SWELL LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

973 
FZAK67 PAJK 301145
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-310100-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN GULF AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-310100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 30 2012 

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. SW
SWELL LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
338 PM AKDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE INCLUDING THE RAIN AND INCREASING
WIND TUE. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE, HOWEVER,
SHORTLY AFTER THE TRANSITION TO THE LONG RANGE SECTION. SEE
BELOW.

 GOES IR LOOP FOR 600 NM S PAMD IS CONSISTENT WITH A ZONALLY
TRACKING AND STRONG TRIPLE PT. THIS TRIPLE POINT FEATURE IS
CYCLOGENETIC AND BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NE. THE PARENT LOW IS
200 NM S OF PADU AND QUASISTATIONARY. 00Z WED THE CYCLOGENESIS OF
THE TRIPLE PT SHOULD RESULT IN A 986 MB LOW ABOUT 300 NM S OF
PAMD WITH A FRONTAL WAVE AT ABOUT 400 NM S OF PAYA. ALSO AT 00Z
WED AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THAT LOW IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF TO A NEW TRIPLE POINT ABOUT 160 NM SW OF
PAKT. WITH A FRONTAL WAVE AT ABOUT 300 NM SW OF PAKT.

 NOTE THE GALE FORCE WINDS DVLPG IN THE CLARENCE STRAIT AS WELL
AS THE OUTSIDE WATERS TUE. THE SFC WINDS ASSOC WITH THE OFCNT
WILL INCLUDE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH REACHING LOCATIONS IN ZONE
27 SRN PNHDL TUE AFTN. SEE THE TABLE LISTING WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES BELOW.

 EC MODEL IS FASTER THAN GFS ON TRACK OF CYCLONE EVOLUTION APCHG
SRN PNHDL. ASSUMING THE EC IS CORRECT, AND GIVEN THAT THE EC
SHOWS A FOLLOWING WAVE, THE GFS SOLUTION CAN REPRESENT A
SMOOTHING OF THE TRIPLE PT LOW AND THE FOLLOWING WAVE. THE NAM
WAS BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS SOLNS, AND GIVEN IT'S SOLN IS CLOSER
TO THE EC, WAS USED AS THE GUIDANCE FOR MANY FIELDS INCLUDING THE
MSLP AND SFC WINDS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD IS STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER DAMP
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, A
PERSISTENT LOW WILL ALSO BE MEANDERING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF DURING THIS PERIOD.

 FIRST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TUES NIGHT. FORECAST
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A LITTLE ARGUMENT OVER HOW FAST THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT GENERALLY ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
STRUCTURE. GFS IS THE SLOW MODEL BEING ABOUT 2 TO 4 HOURS BEHIND
THE EC, UK, AND NAM. GENERALLY BY TUES EVENING WINDS ALONG THE
OUTSIDE WATERS WILL STILL BE BLOWING GALE FORCE BUT WILL START TO
DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. SIMILARLY WIND IN THE INSIDE
CHANNELS WILL BE AT THERE PEAK OR CLOSE TOO IT BY LATE TUES
EVENING. WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG
WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN PUBLIC ZONES TUES
EVENING AND A GALE WARNING FOR CLARENCE STRAIT AS WELL.

 RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT NOTEWORTHY, PARTICULAR FOR THE
SOUTH, AS THE FRONT HAS RETAINED THE MOISTURE THAT IT STRIPED
FROM TROPICAL STORM SANVU EARLIER THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT TOTAL PRECIP WATER SCANS FROM THE POES SATELLITE THAT
SHOW A RATHER MOIST SYSTEM WITH SOME CONNECTIONS STILL REMAINING
BACK TO THE REMAINS OF THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM. SOME AREAS IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE
COURSE OF THE STORM. AREAS FARTHER NORTH MIGHT SEE A TENTH TO
4 TENTHS OF AN INCH DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

 FOLLOWING THE FRONT, THE PARENT LOW WILL SWING AROUND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WED BEFORE DRIFTING AROUND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PANHANDLE
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE DEEP SW FLOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY SHORT WAVES (ONE APPEARING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
AND ANOTHER EARLY FRI) PERIODICALLY THROUGH LATE WEEK. FORECAST
BECOMES A BIT HARDER TO DISCERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS OPERATIONAL
MODELS START DISPLAYING SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.

 LONG RANGE MODELS WERE IN OK AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL EXCEPTION OF THE FRONT TUES NIGHT. DECIDED
ON A BLEND OF NAM AND EC FOR THE MID RANGE AS BOTH LOOKED TO HAVE
THE THE BEST AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. AS WELL AS
THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE MADE SENSE BASED ON INTERACTIONS FROM JET
PATTERNS. FARTHER OUT, TRANSITIONED TO MORE HPC DATA TO GET A
GOOD MIDDLE GROUND SINCE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE STILL A BIT JUMPY
WITH THE SCENARIO FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033-035.

&&

JBT/EAL