Gale Warning 215, NWS Juneau, AK

895 
FZAK52 PAJK 242353
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 24 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-251400-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 24 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF WILL TRACK NE TO A LOCATION WEST
OF HAIDA GWAII BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-251400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-251400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO
9 FT LATE. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE AND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT LATE. SEAS
8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-251400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7
FT LATE. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AND DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-251400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-251400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 24 2012 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6
FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
411 PM AKDT MON APR 23 2012

.SHORT TERM...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE
EASTERN GULF HAS LINKED UP WITH AN EQUALLY WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ENHANCED PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR SOUTH TO KLAWOCK WITH THE MOST FREQUENT
ACTIVITY IN ANGOON AND PETERSBURG. STILL NOTHING IN JUNEAU BUT IT
ISN'T FAR AWAY.

 THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY ARE
SEEING A BIT OF A SEA BREEZE AS WELL...MOST NOTABLY IN SKAGWAY AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKER, BUT STILL THERE IN JUNEAU. AM
EXPECTING A SOUTHEAST WIND IN HAINES AS WELL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
TONIGHT AND A FRONT DRAWS NEAR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF, LOOK
FOR THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SWITCH TO A
NORTHERLY GRADIENT FOR TOMORROW. EVEN SO, DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
WIND IN THE FORECAST. ON THE INSIDE, HAVE 15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH
FOR NORTHERN LYNN THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A NORTHEAST WIND TO
15 KTS FOR CROSS SOUND AND THE WESTERN HALF OF ICY STRAIT. HAVE
CROSS SOUND PICKING UP TO 20 KTS FOR TOMORROW AND BRIEF PERIODS
OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER COASTAL MARINE ZONE 43 LATE MORNING
TOMORROW. SMALL CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR COASTAL
MARINE ZONE 41 BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MORE TO FOLLOW AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT.

 AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DISSIPATED
EARLY IN THE DAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP RADIATION FOG AT BAY IN MOST PLACES. DID INCLUDE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN MISTY FJORDS DUE TO EXPECTED BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER DOWN THERE TONIGHT. TEMPS STILL GETTING DOWN TO
OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MANY NORTHERN LOCATIONS. WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
MENTIONED THIS SPECIFICALLY FOR HOONAH. MIXED PRECIP A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE MENDENHALL VALLEY TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST.
FEEL THAT A NEW DUSTING OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS ALMOST A
CERTAINTY, THOUGH.

 UPDATED THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST WITH NAM FOR WIND AND PRESSURE.
ADJUSTED TEMPS WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM. USED NAM DNG5 FOR
PRECIP AND QPF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN LONGER
RANGE MODELS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK PROJECTING AN UPPER LOW
THAT MOVES FROM THE BERING SEA ACROSS THE GULF OF AK TO NEAR HAIDA
GWAII BY EARLY FRI. THE GREATEST SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW
SUGGESTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MORE SOUTHERLY CENTER LOCATION AND SOME VARIANCE IN THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH.

RAIN AND WIND SHOULD INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT
AND WED AS A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN
GULF REACHES THE B.C. COAST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST AK WHILE WEAKENING. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE IN THE REMAINING ZONES LATER IN THE
WEEK FROM THE DIMISHING FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH.

BY FRI NIGHT THE LOW WEAKENS AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHEAST AK WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIS SHOULD CHANGE THE FLOW
OVER THE PANHANDLE TO BE MORE ONSHORE ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
ADVECT OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS WHICH WOULD ALSO AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION THAT MAKES IT TO SOUTHEAST AK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041-043.

&&

FRITSCH/CFD