Gale Warning 200, NWS Juneau, AK

854 
FZAK67 PAJK 141154
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-150100-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-150100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 14 2012 

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. S SWELL LATE.
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
132 PM AKDT FRI APR 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. A WEAK LOWER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE NE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
NE TO THE SRN GULF BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. USED NAM/ECMWF BLEND
FOR TONIGHT AND SAT AS THEY HAD BEST FIT TO SATELLITE AND OBS
DATA AS OF 18Z THIS MORNING.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS. ATTM
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE ERN GULF AND SOME PRECIP
AROUND PAPG. THINK THIS PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF WILL TRIGGER
A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST MTNS AND IN THE
PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL AT FIRST...BUT AS LOWER LEVEL TROF MOVES ONSHORE LATE
TONIGHT AND SAT...THE SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE. THEN AS
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE SELY SAT...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE PAYA AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. AM LIMITING
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED SO POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY SAT.

 AS FOR WINDS...NOT MUCH WIND RIGHT NOW WITH FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENTS OVER THE AREA...BUT AS OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NWD INTO
THE GULF...INCREASING E-SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WINDS
ARE LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. A
NARROW BAND OF GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SAT JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL PICK UP SAT BUT
SHOULD  REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS.

 OTHERWISE...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER THE SRN COAST AND PAKT
ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THEY WILL HAVE LARGER BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE COOLING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY MOIST THERE AS WELL.
TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES ON AVERAGE FOR SAT DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SPOTTY PRECIP...AND A COOLER MARITIME AIRMASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SFC TROF.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...EXTENDED FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT QUIET WITH AN UPPER
LOW SETTLING INTO THE GULF FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS
FEATURE NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK MODEL AGREEMENT IS
FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN PROBLEMS ARE WITH
DEALING WITH THE VARIOUS WAVES THAT ARE ROUNDING THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

 WAVE ONE IS A WEAKENING FRONT THAT WILL GET TO THE OUTER COAST
ON SUN. NOT MUCH WITH THIS FRONT AS IT HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM ITS
MOISTURE PLUME BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE. SAME FOR ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS DIVERGENT FLOW IS DIMINISHING THE JET ENERGY AND
VORTICITY SUPPORT AVAILABLE TO IT. EXPECTING MAYBE UP TO 3 TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN ALONG THE OUTER
COAST THIS WEEKEND. INNER CHANNEL AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH QPF DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW DRYING OUT THOSE
AREAS. NOT MUCH WIND WITH THIS FRONT EITHER. HIGHEST WINDS WILL
BE IN THE OUTSIDE WATERS WITH MIN GALE POSSIBLE NEAR CAPE
SUCKLING SUN.

 BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER LOW WILL BE ROUNDING THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE MAIN LOW AND WILL ROTATE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
BY WED. THIS FEATURE WILL REPLACE THE PREVIOUS LOW IN THE GULF AS
THE DOMINATE FEATURE. EXACT TRACK IS UP FOR DEBATE BUT MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FEATURE WILL BE PRESENT. THIS WILL
ALSO SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE BUT THIS ONE IS
EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE FIRST ONE. STILL WILL BE SHOWERS
AROUND BUT I ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS AT MOST FOR THAT SYSTEM.

 CURRENT INDICATIONS POINT TO ANOTHER LOW HEADING FOR THE SE GULF
AND PANHANDLE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. TRACK, TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE
UP IN THE AIR AT THE MOMENT BUT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A WINDY LATE
WEEK PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THIS SYSTEM.

 LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS
TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE EC FOR
UPDATES AS IT INITIALIZED CURRENT FEATURES REASONABLY WELL. USED
HPC DATA FOR THE EXTENDED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

RWT/EAL