Gale Warning 199, NWS Juneau, AK

623 
FZAK67 PAJK 020634 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1034 PM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-030045-
1034 PM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF
ON MONDAY EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY.     

$$

PKZ310-030045-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1034 PM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN
PORTION. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTHERN HALF. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION...OTHERWISE SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

600 
FZAK67 PAJK 021158
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-030100-
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF
ON MONDAY EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY.     

$$

PKZ310-030100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN PORTION. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

868 
FZAK67 PAJK 021631 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
831 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-031045-
831 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF
ON MONDAY EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY.     

$$

PKZ310-031045-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
831 AM AKDT MON APR 2 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT...STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN PORTION. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN PORTION. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

630 
FZAK67 PAJK 022331
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON APR 2 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-031400-
400 PM AKDT MON APR 2 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 964 MB STORM FORCE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 
 

$$

PKZ310-031400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT MON APR 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS SOUTHERN HALF. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. W SWELL.
.FRI...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

096 
FZAK67 PAJK 031134
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040100-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 976 MB GALE FORCE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH TUE THEN MOVE
AWAY SOUTHEAST TUE NIGHT AND WED. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WED.   

$$

PKZ310-040100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 3 2012 

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. S
SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
308 PM AKDT SUN APR 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. A
SHORT WAVE IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP SOUTH
OF FREDERICK SOUND. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE AS
EVIDENCED BY PLENTY OF OPEN CELL CUMULUS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND SNOW SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.

 A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD SHIELD IS JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF HAIDA GWAII AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL
HAVING TROUBLE WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND THIS
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD. OPTED FOR THE GFS TRACK BUT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE NOT
QUITE AS DEEP AS GFS. END RESULT WILL BE FULL GALES INSTEAD OF
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MARINE ZONES WITH GALES
OVER SOUTHERN CHATHAM, WESTERN SUMNER, AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CLARENCE STRAIT. ALSO HAVE A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR PUBLIC ZONE
27 THAT EXTENDS INTO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.

 SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL GIVE WAY OVERNIGHT TO
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HAVE THE CATEGORICAL LINE EXTENDING AS
FAR NORTH AS A LINE FROM SITKA TO JUST NORTH OF FIVE FINGERS
LIGHT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING MIXED PRECIP EVEN THIS
AFTERNOON, SO SOME SNOW IN SHOWERS TONIGHT SEEMS A CERTAINTY, BUT
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WAR AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN TOMORROW.

 BLENDED EC AND GFS FOR PRESSURE. MODIFIED GFS WIND FIELD TO
LIMIT MARINE WINDS BELOW STORM FORCE. ADJUSTED TEMPS WITH BIAS
CORRECTED NAM. POP AND QPF FROM SREF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE
COAST OF HAIDA GWAII WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS
THROUGH MID WEEK. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS
WITH STRONG WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LOW
WEAKENS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST WARD AND BUILDS OVER THE AK GULF. THE
REGION WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES AS THE RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
RESULTING FORM THE COOL WATERS, WARMING LANDS AND WEAK SYNOPTIC
FORCING. FOR THE WEEKEND THERE IS INDICATION THAT A SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SO HAVE INCLUDED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS.

MODELS WERE IN GENERALLY SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BUT STILL HAD
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE GALE FORCE LOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY TUESDAY
THE 12Z GS AND 12Z ECMWF FELL MORE IN LINE WITH THE SPEED OF THE
LOW EXITING THE AREA. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT LARGE DIVERGENCE OCCURRING BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE
SPIT FLOW PUSHING WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH MAIN
LOW ENERGY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. GFS SHOWS A DEEPER MORE
ORGANIZED LOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. USED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN
TRANSITIONED TO AN EC/HPC BLEND FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
EC HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCE
WITH DETAILS FOR MONDAY NIGHT BUT AS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEK FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-031-033-035-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-032-034-043.

&&

FRITSCH/PRB