Gale Warning 193, NWS Juneau, AK

491 
FZAK52 PAJK 192320
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 19 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-201400-
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 19 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEAR HAIDA GWAII TUESDAY AND WEAKEN OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE INNER CHANNELS MONDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-201400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 19 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. S
SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-201400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 19 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-201400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 19 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-201400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 19 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-201400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 19 2012 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

291 
FZAK52 PAJK 201142
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210100-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW DRIFTING OVER HAIDA GWAII TUESDAY MORNING WILL
WEAKEN OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO WED.  

$$

PKZ041-210100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... 

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-210100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-210100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR CROSS SOUND. SEAS 
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-210100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-210100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 20 2012 

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
224 PM AKDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE CONTINUES. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF SMALL LOWS THAT ARE WEAKENING AND DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. ONE OF THESE FEATURES STALLED
NEAR SITKA AND A DEFORMATION BAND REMAINED QUASI STATIONARY RIGHT
OVER SITKA. THERE WERE REPORTS OF OF 3 TO 6 INCHES EARLY TO THE
HALF WAY POINT OF THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED...WITH
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEAVIER SNOW. WARNING SHOULD BE ENDING
THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

 SNOW IS SPREADING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FOR THE
EVENING. WILL CALL THE SNOW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BUT
WOULD EXPECT THAT THE SNOW TOTALS THERE WOULD BE UPWARDS OF
2 INCHES ON THE TOP END I THINK.

 OVERALL WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT STAYING UNDER 20 KT MAINLY.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP IS THE
AMOUNT OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS THRU THE RIDGE THAT SHOULD BE W OF
THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE GFS WAS MOST
AGGRESSIVE BREAKING A STRONG SHORTWAVE THRU THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
GULF BY SAT...WHILE THE UKMET WAS LEAST AGGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF WAS
CLOSER TO THE UKMET IDEA ON ITS 00Z RUN...BUT THE 12Z RUN CAME IN
CLOSER TO THE GFS IDEA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SYSTEM OVER THE
GULF NEXT WEEKEND AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THOUGHT IT WAS BEST
TO LEAVE IT AS IS.

 CLOSER IN...CURRENT FORECAST AND LATEST MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
SO DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO IT FROM MON NIGHT ON OUT. ONLY
POTENTIAL ISSUE I SAW WAS WAY THE LOW WAS HANDLED BY THE LATEST
MODELS ON WED AGAINST WHAT WAS IN THE GRIDS. HOWEVER THE MODEL
AGREEMENT DIVERGES ON THE LOW AT THAT POINT SO FELT IT WAS BEST
TO NOT CHASE IT RIGHT NOW. DID MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS
MON NIGHT...LOWERING THEM SOME OVER MAINLY THE NRN AREA DUE TO
EXPECTED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS. STILL REMAINED ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE THOUGH AS THERE MAY BE SOME WIND AROUND TO KEEP THINGS
MORE MIXED IN SOME AREAS. DID TWEAK SNOW LEVELS AS WELL MAINLY
OVER THE S TO ALLOW PTYPE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN SOONER
DUE TO WARMING BNDRY LAYER.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051.

&&

BEZENEK/RWT