Gale Warning 177, NWS Juneau, AK

590 
FZAK51 PAJK 052149 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-060100-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW IN THE SE GULF WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO S OF HAIDA GWAII
THEN DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK. A WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND ONSHORE OVER
THE PANHANDLE TUE. 

$$

PKZ011-060100-
GLACIER BAY-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-060100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO
7 FT LATE. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
7 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-060100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-060100-
ICY STRAIT-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-060100-
CROSS SOUND-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN
THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-060100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-060100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW LATE. 
.TUE...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-060100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT
7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW LATE. 
.TUE...S WIND BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-060100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW LATE. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-060100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW
LATE. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
5 FT. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-060100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1249 PM AKST MON MAR 5 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
351 PM AKST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SHORT TERM...AT NOON....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EXTENDING
FROM JUST SE OF YAKUTAT SW ACROSS THE GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL
STEADILY DIG SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND WILL MARK AN END
TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND MARKEDLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

 A SMALL 1008 MB LOW JUST WEST OF CSP WILL FILL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW IS SENDING SHOWERS...SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOW...INTO
COASTAL SE ALASKA AROUND PELICAN AND IS KEEPING SOLID SMCR SW
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST PROBABLY
PUSHING 5 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ELSEWHERE ONLY AN INCH MAY
FALL SO WILL KEEP A LARGE RANGE OF ACCUMULATIONS IN PLACE WITH NO
ADVISORY.

 A DEVELOPING WAVE NEAR 55N/142W DEEPENS TO 1009 MB IN THE SE
GULF THIS EVENING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS SE LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT
BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE GULF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. OVERALL QPF STILL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH MOST LOCATIONS FOR AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW. LOCALLY THERE
COULD BE TRAINING OF SHOWERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN UPWARDS OF
5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON
FROM THE NW THIS EVENING WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER EASTERN GULF
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TURN WINDS TO NW ACROSS
EASTERN GULF AND TO N THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS CAA AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS FAR NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THIS BREAK.

 WEST OF RIDGE AXIS WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND STEADY SNOW INTO PAYA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

 HAD RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS IN SHORT TERM BUT
GEM GLOBAL HAD CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOWS A BIT DEEPER AND HIGHS A
BIT STRONGER AND MAINTAINED STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THIS IS VERIFYING NICELY AS SMCR REDEVELOPED IN LYNN
CANAL AND NEAR CDE WITH STRONGER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS MOST
LOCATIONS AND WAS USED FOR PRES AND WIND IN GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FROM MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE DETAILS OF WHAT MOVES INTO THE GULF. BEFORE
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE FORECAST
MODELS WITH A UPPER HIGH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
INTO THE GULF. THE SURFACE DETAILS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH
FROM MODEL TO MODEL OF WHAT WILL COME OUT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BUT THE EC/NAM HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE THAT
THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE AS THE UPPER TROF BEHIND THE
LOW SLOWS AND SHARPENS UP THROUGH WED AND THIS WILL HAVE A BIG
IMPACT TO THE FORECAST FROM MON THROUGH WED. THERE IS SOME WARM
TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER HIGH SO THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO CHANGE THE P-TYPE FROM A SNOW/RAIN SNOW MIX TO ALL
RAIN AS A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
WED.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE BROAD AREA UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL TIP OVER AND
INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW. A SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF ALONG WITH A WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS WEATHER FRONT WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS
WEATHER FRONT IS FROM THE SUB- TROPICS AND WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR
OVER THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE TROF MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF THE
RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL SHARPEN AND A LEE SIDE TROF WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND LIMIT
THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 1-4 INCHES WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MARINE WATERS ALONG OVER
LAND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. BY TUE
MORNING GALES WILL BE OVER LYNN CANAL AND MAX SMALL CRAFT OVER THE
REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND EASTERN GULF WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH WED AS THE SURFACE TROF OVER THE GULF LIFTS INTO
THE YUKON AND REDEVELOP. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN BY
EARLY TUE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO WED AS THE DEEP SW FLOW
INCREASES AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON
TUE NIGHT/WED BUT OVERALL THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST THAT
MUCH. AS OF RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH OVER
THE GULF THURSDAY THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE FRI BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THIS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

MM/ABJ