Gale Warning 176, NWS Juneau, AK

733 
FZAK51 PAJK 030704 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-040115-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE E THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. A
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND WEAKEN
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ011-040115-
GLACIER BAY-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-040115-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... 

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-040115-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-040115-
ICY STRAIT-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-040115-
CROSS SOUND-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-040115-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-040115-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-040115-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 4 FT...
EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-040115-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-040115-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-040115-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1004 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
355 PM AKST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...MUCH QUIETER SHORT RANGE FORECAST TODAY. LAST
NIGHT'S FRONT IS WELL INTO CANADA RIGHT NOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
RANGED FROM 11 TO 14 INCHES IN YAKUTAT, 5 TO 7 IN HAINES AND ON
THE HIGHWAYS, AND 3 OR LESS ELSEWHERE. PRECIP HAS MAINLY CHANGED
OVER TO SHOWERS NOW WITH MOST PLACES BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS NOT THE PRECIP BUT THE WIND IN LYNN
CANAL AND SKAGWAY. LYNN CANAL IS BLOWING A SOUTHERLY GALE WITH
SKAGWAY GUSTING HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A STRONG WIND HEADLINE.
THIS IS ALL DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.

 FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS W TO SW
FLOW PERSISTS. THE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE
ENHANCED TONIGHT AS A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE RAIN FOR THE SOUTH MAYBE MIXING WITH SNOW
AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS, WHILE THE NORTH WILL BE A MIX FOR
THE MOST PART. A COLD AIR MASS ALOFT IS WHAT IS SUPPORTING THE
SNOW IN THESE SHOWERS BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH, PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, FOR
THE SNOW TO BE RAIN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SURFACE OR THE
SNOW WILL MELT AS IT HITS THE GROUND. CONSEQUENTLY I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT OR
TOMORROW. THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WHEN THE SURFACE TEMPS ARE THE
LOWEST.

WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY HAVE REACHED
6 MB AND GALES AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN LYNN
CANAL AND SKAGWAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE LOWERS
SURFACE PRESSURES FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. DECIDED TO STICK
WITH THE NAM WITH SOME OF OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL FOR SHORT RANGE
UPDATES AS THEY SEEMED TO REPRESENT THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE NORTH BETTER THEN THE OTHER MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
UNDER FAST W TO SW FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA DIMINISH FROM
THE NORTH STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND BECOME NORTHERLY IN NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS WHICH LEADS TO SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND
BRINGS COLDER TEMPS TO THE AREA. EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE TEEN
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS INTO
THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON TUESDAY.
SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHERN
MONDAY MORNING. THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON
TUESDAY AND EXPECT SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY PAYA
AND THE HAINES HIGHWAYS. QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODERATE SO COULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR NORTHERN HALF BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE MAX SMCR
SLY WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. DO HAVE STRONG CAA ACROSS
GULF ON TUESDAY BUT THIS HAS A LONG FETCH SO MODELS PROBABLY
RUNNING A BIT COLD HERE. STARTED TO SEE A WARMING TREND IN TOADY'S EC
FOR MID WEEK.

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WED-THU WITH MARINE PUSH
ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE. NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH INTO
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

PREFERRED THE EC TODAY WITH A STRONGER THERMAL RIDGE ON TUE-WED
SYSTEM AND IN GENERAL WARMER TEMPS THAN GFS OR NAM.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-041>043-
     051-052.

&&

EAL/MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1036 AM AKST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 AM     SNOW             HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
03/02/2012  M6.7 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL OF 6.7 INCHES IN DOWNTOWN HAINES.

0947 AM     SNOW             15 NE SKAGWAY           59.63N 135.03W
03/02/2012  E6.0 INCH        XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL OF 6.0 INCHES ESTIMATED BY ALASKA DOT NEAR
            THE BORDER ON THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.

&&

TPS