Gale Warning 165, NWS Juneau, AK

569 
FZAK51 PAJK 272255 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-280100-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE
MON. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE.  

$$

PKZ011-280100-
GLACIER BAY-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-280100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-280100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-280100-
ICY STRAIT-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-280100-
CROSS SOUND-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-280100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AROUND MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-280100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AROUND MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-280100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-280100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 40 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-280100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-280100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
155 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
531 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE
INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. AREAS NORTH OF A JUNEAU TO SITKA
LINE HAVE BEEN SEEING SNOW MOST OF THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEMS WARM FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY
SNOWFALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE RAIN
MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECTING IT TO
CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL BELOW
FREEZING. HAVE ISSUED ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW
EVERYWHERE BUT THE KLAWOCK AND HYDER ZONES AS THEIR ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. THE NORTHERN ZONES
ARE UNDER A WARNING WHERE A RANGE OF 10 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
GET INTO THE SNOW A BIT LATER AND HAVE ISSUED THE ADVISORY FOR
THEM STARTING AT MIDNIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT 3 TO
9 INCHES IS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS WILL START TO MIX WITH RAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT.

 THE COASTAL ARES WILL SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT BELOW HEADLINE LEVEL AND THE
OUTSIDE WATERS WILL SEE GALE FORCE WINDS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE INSIDE WATERS CREATING STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. THEREFORE A GALE WARNING IS IN
PLACE FOR THE MARINE ZONE AND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SKAGWAY AREA TONIGHT AND ABOUT 30 MPH IN HAINES. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TURNS MORE E-W.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. USED MAINLY THE
NAM12 AND THE ECMWF AS THEY INITIALIZED WELL. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...BUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON ACCUMULATIONS. TIMING OF ANY MIXING
WILL AFFECT THIS AND THEREFORE HAVE PUT BROADER RANGES IN FOR THE
WARNINGS.

&&

 .LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AK GULF AND
PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AK GULF. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW CENTERED OVER THE AK
INTERIOR MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AK GULF THEN OVER THE EASTERN AK
GULF BY THE NEXT WEEKEND.

 AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN AK GULF
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY AS IT ELONGATES
SOUTHWARD WITH A SERIES OF SMALLER VORTICITY CENTERS MOVING ALONG
THE AK PANHANDLE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS.
WHILE 850 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S DURING THE DAY TUESDAY KEEPING SHOWERS A RAIN SNOW MIX.
AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION THE SHOWERY NATURE CAN RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. BY THURSDAY SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AK GULF REACHING
THE AK PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FRONT.

 MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. WHILE THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE NORTHEAST LOW MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY OVERALL THESE SHOW ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
PRACTICAL FORECAST. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AK GULF
AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FROM THEM ON MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES BECOME PERVASIVE. CONTINUED TO USE AN ECMWF/NAM
BLEND DO TO INITIALIZATION AND CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORT TERM.
DAY 4 ONWARD USED NEW HPC GUID WHICH WAS A BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF. INHERITED GRIDS WERE VERY CLOSE TO NEW MODEL RUNS SO
CHANGES WERE MINOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM AKST
     MONDAY FOR AKZ026-028.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ023-024.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ018>021-025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ017-022.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-033-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034-035-053.

&&

HANNON/PRB