Gale Warning 158, NWS Juneau, AK

280 
FZAK52 PAJK 240745 CCA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1045 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-241400-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTER COAST FROM THE
SOUTH ON FRIDAY...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. OUTLOOK. A FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-241400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT
LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-241400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1045 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

CORRECTED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL.
.FRI...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-241400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. SW
SWELL.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-241400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SW SWELL.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-241400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SW SWELL.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

912 
FZAK52 PAJK 241308
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 24 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-250100-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 24 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE HAIDA GWAII ISLANDS FRIDAY. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTER COAST ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH SATURDAY AND SHIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
SUNDAY. OUTLOOK. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY.

$$

PKZ041-250100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 24 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-250100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 24 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-250100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO
11 FT LATE. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-250100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 24 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-250100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 24 2012 

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
235 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2012

.SHORT TERM...A LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BE SLOWLY
DEEPENING (TO ABOUT 995 MB) AS IT MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF HAIDA GWAII BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL AREA OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THE
PRECIPITATION BAND WITH THE LOW WILL EXTEND TO JUST NORTH OF
DIXON ENTRANCE TO EFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH TIER
OF PUBLIC ZONES.

 DURING THE EVENING A RESIDUAL LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL
SPIN SOME SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST...MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE WEST OF ICY BAY...THOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES MAY REACH THE YAKUTAT AREA.

 COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ALASKA PANHANDLE. THAT COMBINED WITH THE START OF SOME OFFSHORE
FLOW AND THEN CLEARING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

 LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE LYNN CANAL REGION WILL DO A
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN
THE CANAL THEN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREA.

 IN THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA THE START OF MOUNTAIN WAVE GUSTS TO
JUST SHY OF 40 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...LONG RANGE PERIOD IS GENERALLY QUIET WITH ONLY A
FEW UPHEAVALS HERE AND THERE. FIRST MAIN CONCERN SHOWS UP RIGHT
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FRI NIGHT WITH COLD OUTFLOW WINDS OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE PARENT COLD HIGH
IN CANADA IS NOT VERY STRONG AND WILL NOT BE AROUND FOR LONG. IT
WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY SUN. WHILE IT IS HERE THOUGH,
WINDS WILL BE BLOWING OUT OF THE USUAL OUTFLOW AREAS BUT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG AS MOST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE STILL BOTTLED UP
IN CANADA BEING TOO SHALLOW TO MAKE IT OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. STILL I AM FORECASTING GALES FOR LYNN CANAL MOSTLY DUE TO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. I AM ALSO LOOKING AT HIGHER WINDS FOR
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS FOR A
MODERATE TAKU EVENT SEEM LIKELY.

 FARTHER OUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN APPROACHING FRONT PUSHES THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO THE EAST. PRECIP LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL START UP EARLY MON WITH SOME WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE OUTER COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT MOST
PLACES WILL START OUT AS SNOW WITH SOME PLACES STARTING TO MIX
WITH RAIN. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SPENT
DEALING WITH SHOWERS AS THE PARENT LOW OF THE FRONT REMAINS IN
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

 MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE WAS RATHER GOOD WITH ONLY SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES STARTING TO SHOW UP FOR MONDAY. DECIDED TO DO A
BLEND OF NAM/EC/GFS IN THE MID RANGE THEN TRANSITIONING TO A
MOSTLY HPC BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL