Gale Warning 147, NWS Juneau, AK

136 
FZAK52 PAJK 140630 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
930 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-141830-
930 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
GALE FORCE WEATHER FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF
MON...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE ALASKA LATE MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-141830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
930 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. W
SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-141830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
930 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT LATE. SEAS
18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. W
SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-141830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
930 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-141830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
930 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS
21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-141830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
930 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS
20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

124 
FZAK52 PAJK 141234
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-150100-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF WILL DRIFT
ONSHORE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE INNER CHANNELS BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
WED. 

$$

PKZ041-150100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL.
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-150100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL.
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-150100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW
SWELL.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-150100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-150100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
310 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW MOVING
WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH HIGH CLOUDS LIFTING OVER
SE AK. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE EARLY TUE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA AND INTO CANADA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE SURFACE TROF DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE TROF
WILL MOVE OVER SE AK TUE MORNING AND THEN INTO CANADA BY THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

 THE FRONT OVER THE GULF IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS 35 TO
45 KT FROM THE SE. THESE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A 20 FT SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THERE STILL SOME SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN
THIS AFTERNOON BUT AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO CANADA THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 15 KT LATE THIS EVENING. ALSO THE GUSTY WINDS NEAR
PAGY AND HAINES WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE REST OF THE WINDS OVER MARINE AREAS AND PUBLIC ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THE WINDS OVER E/W CHANNELS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
WITH SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS IN EXPOSED AREAS ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS SOME DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN N/S CHANNELS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN LYNN WITH
15 TO 20 KT OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PAGY WILL ALSO
BEING TO GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH THROUGH TUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

 RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREAS. SHOWER WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE UPPER TROF DRIFTS EAST IN THE MORNING.
THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN BUT FOR THE MOST PART RAIN WILL
BE DOMINANT. THE FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE TO THE EAST SO
THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP JUST ALONG THE NE GULF COAST BY
MORNING...BUT AS THE TROF LIFTS OVER SE AK RAIN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN PLACES WHERE THE PRECIP BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING IT MAY START OUT AS SNOW DUE TO SOME
COOLER DEW POINTS. THE RAIN WILL TAPPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

 THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT 24HRS.
UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH 12Z EC.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODEL PERFORMANCES WERE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
FOR THE EARLIER PORTIONS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WITH THE GFS BECAME
MORE IN LINE TO THE MOST PERSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF
STILL SHOWED A BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN OTHER MODELS TODAY FOR A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WITH ITS TRIPLE
POINT SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS THEY MAKE A GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR ITS MOST PERSISTENT PERFORMANCE.

 THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME A TROUGH
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IN
CONNECTION TO THE LOW OVER THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
GULF BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY THEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING
OVER THE LOCAL REGION.

 PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOST
AREAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST ALASKA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SPREADING SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAKER TROUGH
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

 ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL AFFECT THE OUTSIDE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN MOST OUTER WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. ROUGH SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX...BUT ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...OCEAN ENTRANCES OF THE
INNER CHANNELS WILL EXPERIENCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

 MODEL SPREADS BECAME BIGGER FROM EARLY FRIDAY ONWARD AND
MODIFIED THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIODS WITH THE HPC
OUTPUTS. THE HPC ASSEMBLED THEIR PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND GFS FOR DAYS 4 AND 5...THEN PRIMARILY WENT WITH
THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS. GENERALLY...THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH COMBINED THE SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF AND FASTER/WEAKER GFS
SOLUTIONS. WITH SUCH A LARGE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...SMALL
SCALE FEATURES ARE NOT PRACTICALLY DETECTED...BUT THERE IS A
CERTAIN LEVEL OF PREDICTABILITY FOR A PATTERN CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC
SCALE. WHILE A MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE BERING...AN UPPER
RIDGE DRIFTING EAST ON SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACE WITH A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH BY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-033-035-041-053.

&&

ABJ/AHN