Gale Warning 144, NWS Juneau, AK

664 
FZAK52 PAJK 120352 CCA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
651 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-121400-
651 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY EARLY SUN MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST 
ALASKA SAT NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE 
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUN.  

$$

PKZ041-121400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-121400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. W
SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-121400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT.
W SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-121400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-121400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

168 
FZAK52 PAJK 121211
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-130100-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY BUT
WILL MOVE E INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. A GALE FORCE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF MON NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-130100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS EARLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. W
SWELL. SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-130100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
RAIN LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-130100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-130100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-130100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 12 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.  
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
338 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PUSH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF DEEPENS TO AROUND 990 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH THIS
EVENING THEN CURVES NW TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND WEAKENS
LATE TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON SUNDAY.

 CURRENTLY HAVE GALES THAT ARE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS AND GO TO SMCR THIS EVENING. SE WINDS JUST STARTING TO
PICK UP THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH
20-25 KT TONIGHT. DO HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR ZONE 27 THIS
EVENING.

 RAIN HAS REACHED THE COAST AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL SE BY LATE
EVENING. WILL START OUT THE FAR NORTH WITH SNOW OR MIXED RAIN
SNOW DUE TO WET BULB EFFECT. COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES INLAND AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAYS.

 FRONT IS OUT OF THE AREA BY MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING IN
FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. THERE IS CAA IN LOWER LEVELS AND HAVE
NORTHERN HALF MIXED THROUGH THE DAY BUT ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS EXCEPT FOR PAYA AREA WHICH COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES SUNDAY.
SMCR SLYS FOR LYNN CANAL WITH THE PUSH.

 GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. LIKE UKMET SURFACE PRES BEST
WHICH CLOSED OFF DEVELOPING LOW IN COASTAL WATERS.

.LONG TERM...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST MODELS
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SO THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DIFFERENCES WITH TRACKS OF FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT THE AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS AT THE SURFACE. SO
THERE WAS NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MID RANGE
AND REFRESHED THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
HPC GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STALLED WEATHER FRONT OVER
THE GULF MON/TUE. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS WAS THAT THERE WAS NO
FEATURE THAT WOULD PUSH THE FRONT EAST UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROF
DRIFTS ACROSS THE GULF LIFTS OVER SE AK TUE AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG PERIOD A UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER SE AK
WITH A RIDGE BUILD OVER THE GULF. THIS TROF WILL KEEP A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO SCATTERED OVER AREA BUT AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF BY EARLY MON MORNING. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND
KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER NORTHERN LYNN. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON MORNING AS
THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST BUT DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND BUT
THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.

FOR THE REST OF MON AND TUE...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
WITH GOOD ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM
THE AK PENN SE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF LATE SUN NIGHT AND DRIFT EAST TO BE OVER THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL GULF. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND STALL OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW RIGHT INTO PAYA. SO
THERE WILL BE CAT PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AREAS WITH SOME
PRECIP BEING HEAVY AT TIMES. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE LIQUID FORM BUT THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME FROZEN
PRECIP AT NIGHT WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST. THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
BE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THE MOST PART WITH UPPER HIGH RIGHT OVER
THE PANHANDLE WITH WEAK SE FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS. A CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING BUT FOR THE MOST PART BE DRY UNTIL THE UPPER TROF LIFTS
OVER THE PANHANDLE TUE EVENING AND LIFTS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MID RANGE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE EXTEND PERIODS. WHERE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WAS MADE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z EC THROUGH DAY 3 THEN HPC FOR
DAY 5-7.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

MM/ABJ