Gale Warning 130, NWS Juneau, AK

587 
FZAK52 PAJK 060627 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
927 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-070030-
927 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE AK TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH TUE. 

$$

PKZ041-070030-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
927 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-070030-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
927 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-070030-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
927 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
11 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-070030-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
927 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-070030-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
927 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

896 
FZAK52 PAJK 061242
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 6 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-070100-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 6 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON
THROUGH TUE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SOUTH GULF.  

$$

PKZ041-070100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 6 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-070100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 6 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-070100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 6 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE LATE MORNING.
SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-070100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 6 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-070100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 6 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... 

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE LATE MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
301 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY WEST OF DIXON
ENTRANCE IS BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NNW
TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO ALSO MOVE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
LONGER AND MAINLY SEEING CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT.

 AN AREA OF STRONG WINDS NEAR THE LOW CENTER WILL CAUSE GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS TONIGHT. A SAR PASS
OVER THE LOW THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOWED WINDS OF 35 TO 40KT.
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE LAND AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
OUTER COAST THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED THE STRONG WIND HEADLINE
FOR THE HYDABURG/KLAWOCK AREAS WHERE GUSTS OF 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THE METLAKATLA AND SITKA AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
THIS EVENING OF ABOUT 30 TO 35MPH.

 QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY LIGHT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ALONG THE OUTER COAST. NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE
TO KNOW ACCUMULATION.

 MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON LOW PLACEMENT AND SPEED. THE NAM
WAS THE FASTEST AND DETERMINED AN OUTLIER. THE GFS AND ECMWF CAME
MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER TODAY AND WERE USED FOR MOST UPDATES.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN US AND CANADA WITH QUASI STATIONARY MID LEVELS
LOWS OVER HUDSON BAY AND KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE KAMCHATKA
LOW MOVING INTO THE AK GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.

 FOR THE START OF THE LONG RANGE FAIRLY QUITE WEATHER AS THE
MONDAY LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LIFT NORTH EXITING THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WITH NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS,
STRONGEST OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES AND CHANNELED TERRAIN. AS THE
LOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION NOT EXPECTING THE OUTFLOW WINDS
TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE AK GULF AND PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. DETAILS OF SURFACE FEATURES
BECOME UNCERTAIN BY WED WITH ISSUES ON TIMING AN LOCATION OF THE
WESTERN LOW AND REGARDING LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE NEXT LOWS DETAILS ARE STILL
SKETCHY. SEEING LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW SO KEEPING UNCERTAINTY WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
850 MB TEMPS FOR TUE ARE AROUND 3C WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN THU
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -3C.THIS FLUCTUATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK SO NO LONG COLD SPELLS BUT WILL SEE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN REGIONS,
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE GFS STILL SEEMS THE BEST, HOWEVER THE
EC PERFORMANCE HAS IMPROVED. 12Z EC BEGAN TO SLOW DOWN THE
WESTERN GULF LOW. UKMET FELL MORE IN LINE THE THE 12Z ECMWF. GFS
BECOMES MORE OF AN OUTLIER BY 18Z WED SHOWING TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THE THURSDAY LOW THE
GFS IS MUCH DEEPER, 970 MB, AND FURTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF,
995 MB. UPDATED GRIDS WITH 12Z GFS TO DAY 3 THEN TRANSITIONED TO
12Z EC THEN TO HPC GUID FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST. OVERALL CHANGES ARE MINOR WITH SOME DECREASE IN WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS A BIT WEAKER. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM BUT
DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-051-052.

&&

HANNON/PRB