Gale Warning 12, NWS Juneau, AK

631 
FZAK67 PAJK 131300
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-140100-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE SE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH OVER THE YUKON AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.  

$$

PKZ310-140100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 13 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. W
SWELL. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
125 PM AKST THU JAN 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...WET DAY OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS A LOW
MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BRINGING WIND AND
PRECIP AS IT GOES. MOST AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE ARE WARM ENOUGH
THAT THE PRECIP IS FALLING AS RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT
TIMES IN A FEW PLACES. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS ARE HYDER, SKAGWAY, AND
UP THE HAINES HIGHWAY WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN SNOW ALL MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 7 INCHES AT HAINES CUSTOMS, TO 2 INCHES IN
SKAGWAY THIS MORNING. WIND HAS ALSO BEEN A CONCERN WITH SE WINDS
GUSTING TO 40 MPH AT PORT ALEXANDER AND JUNEAU.

FOR TONIGHT, WIND AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AND BE REPLACED BY
SHOWERS AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY FURTHER INTO CANADA. BEHIND IT
COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THIS IS NOT THE BITTERLY COLD AIR YET AS IT HAS HAD TIME
TO MODERATE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF BEFORE IT GETS
HERE. STILL THE AIR MASS IS COLD ENOUGH THAT BY LATE THIS EVENING
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW WILL
EITHER BE STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.

AS FOR THE PRECIP, NO REAL STRONG STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST, BUT
THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THAT WILL BRING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS
AND MAY BRING A FEW QUICK INCHES TO THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. I DO NOT
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW OUT OF THIS THOUGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE SOME WHAT OF A PROBLEM, THE REMAINS OF THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE YUKON WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN LYNN CANAL TONIGHT. I AM EXPECTING MIN GALE FORCE
WINDS THERE FOR LATE THIS EVENING OUT OF THE SOUTH. THEN BY MID
DAY FRIDAY WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL SWITCH FROM A SOUTHERLY
WIND TO A NORTHERLY AND WILL START TO INCREASE AS THE HIGH IN THE
INTERIOR BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. NAM AND EC HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION AND DID A DECENT
JOB OF REPRESENTING THE PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL.
DECIDED TO USE THOSE MODELS FOR SHORT RANGE UPDATES TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SEWRD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WITH
1 TO 3 INCHES FALLING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE
YUKON...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PUSH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN WITH IT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 BELOW IN HAINES TO 24 ABOVE IN
HYDABURG. THIS DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING STRONG WINDS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL SEE STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50KT
ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 60KT THROUGH INTERIOR PASSES OVER OTHER MARINE
AREAS. OVER LAND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
NORTHERN INTERIOR PASSES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND
SHIFT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM N-S TO MORE NE-SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THOSE GAP WINDS AS WELL AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
TAKU WINDS FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT THIS PATTERN OF COLD/DRY/WINDY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD ONLY
INCREASE THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER LOW WITH
SNOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...HAVE ADJUSTED THIS DOWN
SOME TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS SET UP WILL BE
WIND CHILLS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. ALSO ANY WET SNOW OR LIQUID
WILL FREEZE SOLID SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN
AS TO JUST HOW COLD AND WINDY IT WILL GET. CURRENT FORECAST IS
TRENDING TOWARD THE COLDER AND WINDIER IDEA...HOWEVER MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 2 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-
     052.

&&

EAL/HANNON