Gale Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

907 
FZAK67 PAJK 110653 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
953 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-120100-
953 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND
INTO CANADA WED. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE OVER THE
PANHANDLE THU.  

$$

PKZ310-120100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
953 PM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
550 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY. A DOUBLE CENTER LOW
WITH EASTERN 975 MB LOBE LOCATED OVER SAND POINT AND WESTERN
978 MB LOBE LOCATED 350NM SOUTH WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR. THE EASTERN
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH WEAKENING AS MOST ENERGY IS ABSORBED BY THE
WESTERN LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS. OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN LOW IS
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND WILL MOVE OVER THE AK PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

 WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GALES ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS AND CROSS SOUND WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE REMAINING INSIDE PASSAGES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
WEST-NORTH TO SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT FLIPS.
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE COAST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING WITH THE PASSING FRONT.

 A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY STEADY STATE
SNOW AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS SHOWING
GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH HIGH QPF VALUES ESPECIALLY
NEAR YAKUTAT AND THE NORTHWESTERN REGIONS. COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE IS SETTING UP THE AREAS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BUT SEEING A WARM RIDGE OF AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
WILL AID IN TRANSITIONING THE SNOW TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST.
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALSO RISES ABOVE MAXIMUM OMEGA VALUES WHICH
MAY DECREASE SNOW ACCUMULATION. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SUPPORT SNOW
NEAR YAKUTAT BUT MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL TRANSITION
THE SNOW TO RAIN. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE PANHANDLE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH THAT SAID HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR YAKUTAT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWERED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM
16 INCHES TO 7 TO 12 AS AM EXPECTING THE SNOW TO BE HEAVY AND WET
AS IT MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO RAIN. HOWEVER IF TEMPS REMAIN LOW
AND WINDS REMAIN MORE EASTERLY COULD SEE MORE THAN 16 INCHES OF
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
HAINES AND THE HAINES HIGHWAY FROM TUE EVENING THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 11 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY. SEEING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE RISE ABOVE MAX OMEGA VALUES
HERE AS WELL BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE COASTAL AREAS. OVER THE REST
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAVE KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN 4 INCHES OVER 12 HOUR PERIODS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATION.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH EC SHOWING BEST
INITIALIZATION COMPARING RH TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BUT NAM/GFS
LOOKING A BIT BETTER WHEN COMPARING SURFACE FEATURES. EC WAS MORE
OF AN OUTLIER EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH PRESSURE FEATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT QUICKLY FELL IN LINE WITH OTHER
MODELS. UPDATED GRIDS WITH 06Z NAM DUE TO MORE DETAIL BUT AS
EC/GFS/NAM AND INHERITED GRIDS WERE CLOSE OVERALL CHANGES TO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WAS MINOR. DID USE WSWRF TO INCREASE WINDS A
BIT TONIGHT WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES IS ABOVE AVERAGE THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS WITH THE INCOMING WARM AIR, WIND
DIRECTIONS AND THE EFFECT ON STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH HAS
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE LATEST WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 17 AND MID WAY THROUGH
THE LATEST FOR ZONE 19. AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY CONSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAY AND THE ASSESSMENT FOR TONIGHT IS THE SAME, WHICH IS A
DISTINCT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWICE THE NORMAL AMOUNTS. WARM SECTOR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS A LITTLE MORE BROAD IN MODEL DATA
AND EXPECT TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN SNOW CHANGING TO OR MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ICY
STRAIT, TO INCLUDE JUNEAU.

 BY FRIDAY, COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE WEST AND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SAG SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL SET UP JUST OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER WESTERN CANADA. RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
SAME TIME, THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT AND MANY LOCATIONS
CAN EXPECT COLD, CLEAR, AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
COLDEST AND WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS.

 GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH AS WELL AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF. BOTH LOOK MUCH LIKE THE CURRENT
HPC SOLUTION. MAJORITY OF CHANGES TONIGHT INVOLVED WINDS AND SNOW
LEVELS. POP SOLUTION LOOKED ON TARGET AND WAS CHANGED VERY
LITTLE. TEMPS LEFT UNALTERED, BUT EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THEY WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED DOWN EVEN FURTHER FOR LATER THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK AND LASTING INTO THE
NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ022-
         023.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKST
         WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
         AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>036-041-053.

&&

PRB/FRITSCH