Gale Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

774 
FZAK67 PAJK 011230
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
306 AM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-020615-
306 AM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY SUN EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SE ALASKA SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-020615-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
306 AM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...EAST OF 140W...SE WIND 45 KT. WEST OF 140W...NE WIND 30
KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN...THEN SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

031 
FZAK67 PAJK 011658
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-020615-
306 AM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY SUN EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SE ALASKA SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-020615-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...EAST OF 140W...SE WIND 45 KT. WEST OF 140W...NE WIND 30
KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN...THEN SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

546 
FZAK67 PAJK 020024
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-021400-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE NORTH AND
ONSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE
ALASKA SUN NIGHT.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TUE EVENING. 

$$

PKZ310-021400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

198 
FZAK67 PAJK 020659 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
958 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-030100-
958 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE NORTH AND
ONSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE
ALASKA SUN NIGHT.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TUE EVENING. 

$$

PKZ310-030100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
958 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

791 
FZAK67 PAJK 021256
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-030100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE PANHANDLE WILL EXIT THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A STRONG OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL SPREAD GALES INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-030100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SE
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

603 
FZAK67 PAJK 022151 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1251 PM AKST MON JAN 2 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-031600-
1251 PM AKST MON JAN 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SPREAD GALES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY.

$$

PKZ310-031600-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1251 PM AKST MON JAN 2 2012

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SE
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
609 AM AKST SAT DEC 31 2011

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE
BY TONIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE N INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT REACHING THE EASTERN GULF THEN. USED A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET THRU TONIGHT...AS THE ECMWF WAS A
LITTLE TOO SLOW WITH THE WAVE MOVING N INTO THE GULF TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WINDS...PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS. DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL BE DEALING WITH MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS AS SW FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO SE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MEAN MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE GULF AND ALONG
THE NORTHERN OUTER COAST BY THEN...WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVER THE INNER CHANNELS LATE IN THE DAY.
SNOWFALL IN THE SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT GENERALLY AN
INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...AND AN INCH
OR LESS OVER THE SE HALF.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...PRECIP WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE SPREADING NWD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS...THEN
SPREAD INLAND LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE PRECIP...HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR
IN AREAS THAT UPSLOPE ON E-SE FLOW...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS NORMAL AS
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME VERY STABLE IN THE LOWER 8-10K FT...WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER. UPPER
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING HOWEVER...SO DO
NOT SEE LARGE PRECIP AMOUNTS THRU TONIGHT. COULD SEE UP TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN AREA OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN.

AS FOR WINDS...THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONGER WINDS. IT WILL FAVOR A MORE ELY FLOW UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COAST...WHEN FLOW
SHOULD TURN MORE SELY. WILL NOT HEADLINE FOR WINDS IN THE ZONES
THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SUN. WILL HAVE
GALES DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SPREAD TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE GALES
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CHANNELS AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND BY LATE
TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE REMAINING INNER CHANNELS SHOULD SEE SCA WINDS
TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE UP TO 25 KT S WINDS THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT SLY GRADIENT
IN PLACE...BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO THE
N TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE FIRST LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX STORM IN
THE GULF WILL BE IN THE NE GULF SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL DUMBBELL
TO THE NW AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY WITH HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE SECOND DEEP STORM CENTER WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG 140W AND
REACH THE NE GULF JUST WEST OF PAYA BY 12Z MONDAY. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER DEEP AND COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF TUESDAY WITH THE LEAD LOW MOVING
THROUGH COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY TO NEAR CAPE SUCKLING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STORMS MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS AND CLARENCE STRAIT SUNDAY.
HAVE KEPT A HWA FOR ZONES 27-28 NOON TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS STRONG
75KT LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES INLAND. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR
REMAINING ZONES. IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
AT MAX GALE.

WILL START SUNDAY PRECIP AS SNOW BUT WILL TURN TO RAIN FOR
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING SNOW TO MIX
WITH RAIN FOR NORTHERN AS WARM TOUNGE ALONG OCCLUSION PUSHES
THOUGH INNER CHANNELS SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MON FLOW SHIFTS TO A
WESTERLY WITH CAA BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND EXPECT RAIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN ADVISORY
LEVEL FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ON SUN AND FAR NORTH INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIP MONDAY EVENING AS RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS PANHANDLE. WILL HAVE SOME COOLING BUT CLOUDS RETURN SO
TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING.

A SECOND COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF ON TUESDAY. SE STORM
MOVES INTO COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH GALES FOR INNER CHANNELS. THIS LOW IS UNDER A STRONG 140 KT SLY
JET THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS. HAVE STRONGER WAA WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THINK WILL
HAVE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS CHANGE TO RAIN AND MIX WITH RAIN FOR FAR
NORTH.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GENERAL COOLING
TRENDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WED-FRI.

GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY THEN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS BECOME BIG. USED A GFS/EC BLEND FOR PRES
THOUGH 96 HRS THEN TRANSITIONED TO HPC.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-031>034-053.

&&

RWT/MM