Small Craft Advisory 94, NWS Fairbanks, AK

640 
FZAK51 PAFG 101028
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-110130-
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED 500 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND
WILL MOVE TO THE NEW SIBERIAN ISLANDS BY 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO
THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE NORTH POLE TO 800 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ225-110130-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ230-110130-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-110130-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-110130-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-110130-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
228 AM AKDT MON SEP 10 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

DA/CB SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1249 PM AKDT SUN SEP 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
WILL BE PREDOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY. THE TOP OF A LOW HEIGHT
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
MAINLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE...
AN EXPANSIVE 998 MB LOW CENTERED 800 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DEMARCATION POINT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
SUNDAY...THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS
ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. A 993 MB LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL MOVE TO NEAR GREAT SLAVE
LAKE BY NOON MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. A 1000 MB LOW 250 MILES SOUTH
OF CAPE NAVARIN WILL MOVE TO 150 MILES WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS
BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE DEEPENING TO 995 MB. BY TUESDAY
MORNING THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE PRIBILOFS FILLING TO
1000 MB. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS OVER
PKZ210 BEGINNING TONIGHT AND OVER PKZ200 BEGINNING
MONDAY...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KT
IN PKZ210 AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY IN PKZ200.

SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE EAST OF THE GLENN HIGHWAY TONIGHT...MAYBE ANOTHER
INCH MONDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN AKZ224
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY N-NW WINDS IN AKZ226 LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT...GULKANA GLACIER PLATFORM HAS BEEN REPORTING
FREQUENT GUSTS 35-45 MPH TODAY.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GREENLAND IS PROGGED
BY CURRENT GFS/EUROPEAN TO DEEPEN WHILE WORKING ITS
WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC OCEAN BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...NEAR 75N/167E BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A SIMILAR POSITION BUT WITH
A WEAKER LOW CENTER. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRAG A
SURFACE SYSTEM ALONG WITH IT...AT THIS TIME THIS
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
THREAT TO OUR ARCTIC ZONES.

AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SIBERIA IS PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...DEVELOPING INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA BY SATURDAY. A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST...WITH THE AXIS ALONG 140W LONGITUDE BY
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
A PERIOD OR PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WITH STRONG
CHINOOK WINDS IN AND NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES DEVELOPING AROUND
SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
COULD RISE TO +10C OR HIGHER...WITH SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO FLOODING OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

RF SEP 12