Small Craft Advisory 91, NWS Fairbanks, AK

901 
FZAK51 PAFG 082203
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
203 PM AKDT SAT SEP 8 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-091530-
203 PM AKDT SAT SEP 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A WEAKENING 995 MB LOW 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF BANKS ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT
SEA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH MONDAY.


$$

PKZ225-091530-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
203 PM AKDT SAT SEP 8 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.   
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-091530-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
203 PM AKDT SAT SEP 8 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.  
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-091530-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
203 PM AKDT SAT SEP 8 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.  
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.  
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-091530-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
203 PM AKDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT...DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
FOG.  
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.  
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-091530-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
203 PM AKDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.  
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   
.WED...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
100 PM AKDT FRI SEP 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST AREA...WHILE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.

.SURFACE...IN THE SHORT TERM A MODERATELY STRONG 990 MB LOW JUST
WEST OF BANKS ISLAND AND A 990 MB LOW 500 MILES EAST OF BANKS
ISLAND WILL MERGE INTO A SINGLE 996 MB CENTER 400 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BANKS ISLAND BY 4 PM SATURDAY. A BROAD 1023 MB HIGH OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA AND CHUKOTKA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE CHUKCHI AND BERING SEAS BY 4 PM SATURDAY. A 1006 MB LOW 350
MILES SOUTH OF CAPE OLYUTORSKY IN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO 300 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE OLYUTORSKY BY 4 PM MONDAY DEEPENING TO 1000 MB.
A NEW 1004 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 250 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE
PRIBILOFS BY 4 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING TO 1004 MB JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE PRIBILOFS BY 4 PM MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER PKZ210 ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER PKZ245 AND THE AKZ204 COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING VERY SLOWLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204 WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM
SATURDAY. IN THE LONGER TERM THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA OR BRISTOL BAY BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY MOVING NORTHWARD LATER ON...BUT THERE
IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

SEA LEVELS AT PRUDHOE BAY ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 1.4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS WEST WINDS
DIMINISH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE KOYUKUK RIVER AT BETTLES AND NEAR JOHN RIVER IS RUNNING
HIGH...PROBABLY NEAR OR AT BANK FULL...BUT APPEARS TO BE
CRESTING. PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

RF SEP 12