Small Craft Advisory 85, NWS Fairbanks, AK

757 
FZAK52 PAFG 042220
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 PM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-051330-
220 PM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 974 MB LOW 75 NM NE OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL MOVE
TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WEAKEN TO 980 MB BY 4 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTH TO NEAR GOLOVIN AS A 987 MB
LOW BY 4 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-051330-
NORTON SOUND-
220 PM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-051330-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
220 PM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 7 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.WED...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-051330-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
220 PM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-051330-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
220 PM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

CF/SDB SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 PM AKDT MON SEP 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. CURRENT LOW
NEAR NOME WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE TO THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR ZONES. MEANWHILE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUES TO GUST TO
ADVISORY LEVEL OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES. AS THE SHORT WAVE
KICKS NORTHWARD TONIGHT...IT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT LOW IS POISED TO STRIKE THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREA BY
EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER DECENT WAVE OF MOISTURE
UP INT HT WESTERN INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST ZONES. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE ENHANCED ON THIS LOW BECAUSE OF
THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHWARD IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS THE CURRENT LOW IS POISED
TO DO...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE INTERIOR MUCH MORE THAN
THE CURRENT LOW. THIS MAY BRING A SMALL WINDOW OF WINDS THAT WILL
PUSH THE 70 MPH MARK THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ON TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO WINDS
WILL BE STRONG FOR ONLY 6 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL TAP INTO SOME DECENT COLD AIR BACKED UP INTO
EASTERN RUSSIA AND BRING IT DOWN INTO MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE BROOKS RANGE
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...AFTER WED...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BE IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND IN A LONG
WAVE TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL OF UPWARDS OF AN INCH AND IN SOME LOCATIONS
EVEN MORE THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ALASKA IN THE ALREADY WATER LOGGED AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CF/SDB SEP 12