Small Craft Advisory 80, NWS Fairbanks, AK

050 
FZAK51 PAFG 021140
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
340 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-030245-
340 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CHUKCHI AND
BEAUFORT SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A 984 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN SEWARD
PENINSULA BY 4 AM TUE WEAKENING TO 990 MB. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR ARCTIC
SLOPE MONDAY NIGHT.


$$

PKZ225-030245-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
340 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-030245-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
340 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT EAST OF ICY CAPE.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-030245-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
340 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-030245-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
340 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-030245-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
340 AM AKDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
222 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.DISCUSSION..
UPPER AIR....
AN ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS A SUCCESSION OF TROUGHS
AND RIDGES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE
OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL TEMPORARILY COLLAPSE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST. RIDGING
WILL THEN REBUILD OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL
SWEEP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SEWARD
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND WITH LITTLE NET MOVEMENT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE...
A 998 MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL DISSIPATE BY 4 AM
SUNDAY. A 992 MB LOW WHICH SPUN OFF FROM THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS
OF TYPHOON BOLAVEN...JUST NORTH OF SHEMYA ISLAND AT 10 PM FRIDAY...
WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE CLOSE ON THE FORECAST POSITION FOR 4 PM
SUNDAY...EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND
982 MB. NAM IS FASTER...TAKING THE CENTER TO NEAR KUSKOKWIM BAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER EPISODE OF HEAVY RAIN
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG WITH MAXIMUM SMALL CRAFT TO GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THE NORTHWEST AND
ARCTIC COASTAL MARINE AREAS. SOME RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 50 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE GAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE VERY STRONG WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST 700 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT AROUND 60 KT
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...SURFACE GUSTS TO 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE. RF

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE PATTERN.
THE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT THAT A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WESTERN BERING/SOUTHERN ALEUTIANS SEA MONDAY AND MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA/SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY WEDNESDAY. A DEEP SFC
LOW AROUND 970 MB IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN STEP WITH THE LOW ALOFT
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 990 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WED NIGHT AND WEAKENS FURTHER THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
FURTHER INLAND. MORE WET WEATHER EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
IN MANY AREAS WEST OF ABOUT 150W. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
A DECENT CHINOOK IN THE ALASKA RANGE WEDNESDAY. THE CFS INDICATES
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEEK TWO...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEEK ONE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR WEEK TWO. THE
NCEP RMOPS GENERALLY HAVE LOW RELATIVE MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY
OWING TO FAST MOVING AND DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES. CB

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...MAXIMUM SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE FORCE WINDS...MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND THE NORTHWEST COAST MARINE AREAS...AND NORTHEAST
TO EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND AND EASTERN ARCTIC MARINE AREAS.
HIGHEST SEAS TO AROUND 13 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS OF PKZ220
AND PKZ225. LITTLE OR NO STORM SURGE AND NO COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECTED HOWEVER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN AND NEAR ALASKA RANGE
PASSES SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MIN RH NOT
LIKELY FALLING BELOW 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS HOWEVER.
A STRONGER CHINOOK EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NO RED FLAGS. ROUTINE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECASTS
ENDED FOR THE SEASON YESTERDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STREAMS AND RIVERS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR
ARE LIKELY STILL RUNNING HIGH AS A RESULT OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 3 DAYS...
BUT STAGES SHOULD BE NOW FALLING SLOWLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING
THE LAST 12 HOURS HOWEVER HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH GAGES SHOWING NOT MUCH MORE
THAN A QUARTER INCH AT MOST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

RF/CB AUG 12