Small Craft Advisory 77, NWS Fairbanks, AK

975 
FZAK52 PAFG 312214
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
214 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-011200-
214 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CHUKCHI AND
BEAUFORT SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A 994 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN
SEWARD PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN TO 999 MB BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY SUN. A 984 MB LOW WILL
ENTER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA SAT EVENING AND MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY
SUN.

$$

PKZ200-011200-
NORTON SOUND-
214 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-011200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
214 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-011200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
214 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-011200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
214 PM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JL/JK AUG 12

717 
FZAK52 PAFG 011136
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
336 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-020245-
336 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 996 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO 100
MILES EAST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 10 PM SUNDAY WEAKENING TO
1001 MB. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A 989 MB LOW
100 MILES NORTH OF AMCHITKA WILL MOVE TO 100 MILES SOUTH OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND BY 4 AM MONDAY DEEPENING TO 982 MB.

$$

PKZ200-020245-
NORTON SOUND-
336 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-020245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
336 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT N WINDS 20 KT WEST OF SLEDGE
ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
OFF THE YUKON DELTA. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-020245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
336 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-020245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
336 AM AKDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 AM AKDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH 00Z SUN
INDICATING GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST. THE VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THROUGH 00Z SUN WITH LITTLE NET MOVEMENT. A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW CENTER PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE BERING
STRAIT...THE OUTER WATERS OF PKZ220...AND IN PKZ225. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND IN
PKZ220 BY MID DAY...NORTHEAST GALES PERSISTING IN PKZ225
THROUGH TODAY THEN DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. HIGH
SEAS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND THE OUTER WATERS OF
PKZ220-PKZ225 WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE.

OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

EX TYPHOON BOLAVEN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FROM THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. CURRENT MODELS
AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW SURFACE SYSTEM THIS MORNING JUST
EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT TAKES AN EASTWARD TRACK NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CURVE NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY ARRIVING ALONG OR NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA MAINLAND COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST COAST
FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ZONES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTH TO NORTHEAST
GALES MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN BERING AND CHUKCHI SEA
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER MIN RH EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NO RED FLAGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH HAS OCCURRED DURING THE
LAST 36 HOURS. MANY GAGES IN THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY HAVE
REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75 INCH AND 2 INCHES. THE
HEAVIEST REPORTED 36 HOUR AMOUNTS WERE 2.4 INCHES AT HOGATZA RIVER
RAWS AND 2.1 INCHES AT NORUTAK LAKE RAWS. RAINFALL IN THIS AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEST COAST
FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA NORTHWARD AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ARCTIC COAST. PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

RF AUG 12