Small Craft Advisory 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

641 
FZAK52 PAFG 291056
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
256 AM AKDT WED AUG 29 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-300200-
256 AM AKDT WED AUG 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 997 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 990 MB LOW. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 75N 160E
WILL PUSH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ200-300200-
NORTON SOUND-
256 AM AKDT WED AUG 29 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG... RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-300200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
256 AM AKDT WED AUG 29 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-300200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
256 AM AKDT WED AUG 29 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-300200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
256 AM AKDT WED AUG 29 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SDB/JAM AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
429 AM AKDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ALOFT OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EXTREME EASTERN INTERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING MOVES EAST INTO CANADA TODAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO
BUILD EAST. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO FAIRBANKS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
AND TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LOW NORTH
OF KAMCHATKA DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE VCNTY OF THE BERING STRAIT
BY 00Z FRI.

SFC...A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY
AND THEN MOVES OFF INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON WEDNESDAY. A 1000 MB
LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR TODAY AND ONLY VERY SLOWLY
DRIFTS EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFF THE Y-K DELTA COAST THIS EVENING THAT BECOMES THE
PRIMARY LOW AND MOVES INTO THE NORTON SOUND AND DEEPENS TO A 990
MB LOW THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WERE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BY THU PM. THE NAM WAS
MUCH WEAKER AND A STRONG OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF. THE 06Z NAM IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE
OTHER MODELS. OVERALL WE SIDED WITH THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

INTERIOR...SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING IN THE FAR EASTERN INTERIOR
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST INTO CANADA.  THE AIR MASS
REMAINS QUITE COOL IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH AN 850 MB TEMP OF -1C AT 12Z AT FAIRBANKS. THE AIR MASS
MODERATES SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST AND THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SW MAINLAND COAST
RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR FROM ABOUT
TANANA AND BETTLES WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF
EASTERN INTERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN DOWNSLOPED AND DRY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST SOME LOCALLY STRONGER
SOUTH WIND LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT WINDY PASS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD EAST TO THE PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF BY THURSDAY.
RIDGING SOUTH OF THE RANGE AND A TROUGH EXTENDING EAST FROM A LOW
OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL COMBINE WITH 700 MB FLOW OF 50-60
KNOTS TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS AT WINDY
PASS WED NIGHT AND THU.

WEST COAST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR LOW
WILL PRODUCE RAIN TODAY ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST INLAND INTO THE
KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS.  AREAS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SW MAINLAND AND SPREAD NE INTO THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS
WED. MUCH OF THE SW MAINLAND WILL PICK UP 0.75-1.5" INCHES OF
RAIN THROUGH 12Z THU. HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT
IN PARTS OF NW ALASKA THAT HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS EARLIER THIS MONTH.

NORTH SLOPE...RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
MAINLY FROM WAINWRIGHT SOUTH TODAY AS WELL AS IN MUCH OF THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT.  SOME OF THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY MOVE UP ALONG THE NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST AND CENTRAL BEAUFORT
SEA COAST TONIGHT.  HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
THE BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WEST COAST LOW CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NORTHERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ALONG THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF DIOMEDE
ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY
WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO MID WEEK. RAIN MOVES BACK INTO
PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOCALLY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE BY THURSDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...INTERIOR MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.  SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL RUN FAST BUT WILL
BEGIN TO RECEDE. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE NEXT WEST
COAST SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE SMALL STREAM ISSUES IN NW ALASKA LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

CB AUG 12