Small Craft Advisory 61, NWS Fairbanks, AK

648 
FZAK51 PAFG 241143
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
343 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-250000-
343 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A STRONG 975 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO
100 NM WEST OF POINT LAY AS A 988 MB LOW BY 4AM SAT...THEN
WEAKEN TO 992 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL CHUKCHI SEA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY 4PM SUN IT WILL WEAKEN TO 999 MB 300
MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW.

$$

PKZ225-250000-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
343 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-250000-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
343 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-250000-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
343 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-250000-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
343 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-250000-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
343 AM AKDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

RL/JL AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
652 AM AKDT THU AUG 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND RIDGE OVER NW CANADA IS NOW PROGRESSING
WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING NE. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER ALASKA
FRI AND FRI NIGHT THEN CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS COOLER
AND WETTER CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF AUGUST WILL SPREAD OVER ALL
OF NORTHERN ALASKA BY FRI NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL DROP MUCH
OF ITS ENERGY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RAIN
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT.

A SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER KAMCHATKA WILL
MOVE TO ANADYR BY 4PM TODAY AND TO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA BY 4PM FRI.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A STRONG SURFACE LOW.

SURFACE...
A WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. AREAS OF RAIN ALONG THIS
FEATURE WILL DIMINISH TODAY.

A STRONG LOW IN NORTHEAST RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AS A 977 MB LOW BY 4AM FRI AND TO 100 NM WEST OF POINT
LAY AS A 988 MB LOW BY 4AM SAT. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA BY 4AM FRI AND TO
WAINWRIGHT TO MCGRATH BY 4PM FRI AND TO PRUDHOE BAY TO DELTA
JUNCTION BY 4AM SAT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH .25 TO .50 INCH WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH THIS FRONT.

SOUTH WINDS 30-40 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN SW 30-40KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY SURF TO MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. THE SURGE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-4 FEET FRI
IN MOST AREAS WHICH COMBINED WITH SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL CAUSE
HEAVY SURF MOST AREAS ZONES 207, 211, 212 AND 213. KIVALINA COULD SEE
MINOR FLOODING FROM THIS AND FROM HIGH FLOW INTO THE KIVALINA
LAGOON SO HAVE ISSUED A WATCH FOR THAT AREA. FAR EASTERN NORTON
SOUND COULD SEE A SURGE HEIGHT OF 4-5 FT WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING BUT THIS IS LATER IN TIME AND SO HAVE ONLY ISSUED A
HEAVY SURF FOR ZONE 212 AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLLUTIONS, ESPECIALLY ON
THE STRONG INCOMING LOW.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...POSSIBLE HEAVY SURF ZONES
201 AND 202 SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EASTERN INTERIOR REMAINING DRY TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER REMAIN HIGH NW ALASKA AND WILL RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT
AS ANOTHER INCH FALLS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB AUG 12