Small Craft Advisory 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

880 
FZAK52 PAFG 122142
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
142 PM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-131245-
142 PM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT
TO THE WEST ON WED AND WILL BE CENTERED 250 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND BY 4 AM AKDT THU. A 1012 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP FRI OVER THE
NORTH CHUKCHI SEA AND PERSIST THROUGH SUN. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ200-131245-
NORTON SOUND-
142 PM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT THIS EVENING DIMINISHING. SEAS 5 FT.
FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-131245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
142 PM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-131245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
142 PM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-131245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
142 PM AKDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

TF/JL JUN 12

219 
FZAK52 PAFG 131201
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
401 AM AKDT WED JUN 13 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-140315-
401 AM AKDT WED JUN 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
INLAND THU AND THEN PERSIST. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL PERSIST.

$$

PKZ200-140315-
NORTON SOUND-
401 AM AKDT WED JUN 13 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. WINDS LOCALLY NORTH GUSTING 20 KT NEAR
THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING. SEAS
3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FOG.
.THU...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. FOG.
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-140315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
401 AM AKDT WED JUN 13 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FOG.
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-140315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
401 AM AKDT WED JUN 13 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 5 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-140315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
401 AM AKDT WED JUN 13 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 5 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

JB/DJH JUN 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
129 PM AKDT MON JUN 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM AND GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS FORECAST HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT NOW OVER THE EASTERN CHUKCHI SEA TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR OF THE BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY. STARTING
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE FAR
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND TO
REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS FORECASTS THIS
FEATURE TO REACH THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL
PREDICTS THIS LOW ALOFT TO BE WEAKER AND TO MOVE ON A PATH A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE NAM FORECAST LOOKS
MORE REASONABLE.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT THE
ARCTIC SOURCE REGION HAS TOO LITTLE MOISTURE TO DELIVER MORE THAN
1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

BY THURSDAY...THE GFS FORECASTS VERY WEAK CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER
ALL THE REALM THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
SIMILAR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
MODELS FORECAST INCREASING WESTERLIES OVER THE CHUKCHI AND
NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEAS STARTING SATURDAY...BUT NEITHER MODEL
PROJECTS THIS INCREASED FLOW TO EXPAND OVER ANY PART OF THE REALM
OTHER THAN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE CHILLY -- MAINLY IN THE 30S -- OVER THE
ARCTIC...NORTHWEST ALASKA INCLUDING KOTZEBUE SOUND...AND DOWN OVER
THE BERING STRAIT AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF
MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.

THE AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAIN OF THE ARCTIC...AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
AND OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. THE KOYUKUK VALLEY
IS MOSTLY OVERCAST. THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS OVERCAST...EXCEPT
FOR THE YUKON DELTA. THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR IS NEARLY ALL
CLOUDY...BUT ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY THE SUMMITS OF MOUNT MCKINLEY
AND MOUNT FORAKER ARE IN THE CLEAR ABOVE THE CLOUDS.

THE BRISK EAST WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST FROM CAPE HALKETT TO
BARTER ISLAND HAVE PERSISTED FOR 3 DAYS NOW. PRUDHOE BAY/DEADHORSE
HAS HAD THE STRONGEST WINDS. DEADHORSE HAD A PEAK GUST OF 40
KNOTS/46 MILES AN HOUR...AT 8.30 AKDT THIS MORNING. THESE BRISK
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE INTERIOR WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW ALOFT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAYS SCENE IS ONLY MILDLY ACTIVE. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR
MOVED DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR STARTING LAST
NIGHT. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NORTH OF FAIRBANKS...WHERE
THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE DROPPED FROM 55 DEGREES F AT 7 AM AKDT
THIS MORNING TO 45 DEGREES AT NOON.

THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY IS MOST UNSTABLE IN THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY...THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE WESTERN
KOYUKUK VALLEY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE NAM COMPUTER WEATHER
FORECAST MODEL PREDICTS A LITTLE LESS INSTABILITY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR DURING
THE EVENINGS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE IN THE 20S PERCENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR.

AS OF 1.30 PM AKDT NO LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN RECORDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NORTHERN ALASKA RIVERS ARE MOSTLY AT LOW STAGES. SOME GLACIER FED
RIVERS ARE RISING...THE ATIGUN RIVER BELOW GALBRAITH LAKE IS ONE.
ON THE YUKON FLATS...BIRCH CREEK CRESTED ON THE NIGHT OF JUNE
9-10. THERE ARE RISING STAGES ON THE YUKON RIVER FROM EAGLE
UPSTREAM...THESE REFLECT THE HEAVY RAINS IN THE YUKON TERRITORY
LATE LAST WEEK. THE YUKON IS PREDICTED TO CREST 10 FEET BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AT EAGLE. STAGES ON JUST ABOUT ALL OTHER NORTHERN
ALASKA RIVERS ARE AT MODERATE TO LOW LEVELS ARE ARE SLOWING
FALLING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

TF JUN 12