Small Craft Advisory 57, NWS Fairbanks, AK

608 
FZAK51 PAFG 212213
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 PM AKDT TUE AUG 21 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-221315-
213 PM AKDT TUE AUG 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 995 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE TO 50 NM NE OF
WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4PM AKDT WED. 1008 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
CHUKOTKA ON WED. A 980MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM SIBERIA TO THE GULF OF
ANADYR BY 4AM AKDT FRI.

$$

PKZ225-221315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
213 PM AKDT TUE AUG 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-221315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
213 PM AKDT TUE AUG 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-221315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
213 PM AKDT TUE AUG 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
FOG.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-221315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
213 PM AKDT TUE AUG 21 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SE 15 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-221315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
213 PM AKDT TUE AUG 21 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...BECOMING
E 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RT/DJH AUG 12

719 
FZAK51 PAFG 221149
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
349 AM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-230030-
349 AM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
995 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHWEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE NORTHWEST. 
A 999 MB LOW NEAR GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
AS A 1003 MB LOW BY 4AM THU AND THEN DISSIPATE. A STRONG LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA THU AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI
SEA AS A 980 MB LOW FRI.

$$

PKZ225-230030-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
349 AM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-230030-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
349 AM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4
FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-230030-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
349 AM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-230030-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
349 AM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-230030-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
349 AM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS TO 4 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AUG 12

038 
FZAK51 PAFG 222329
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
329 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-231430-
329 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
996 MB LOW 100 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWEST 20 KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
BEAUFORT SEA. 994 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE
NORTH 25 KT AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. 994 MB LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF
CAPE OLYUTORSKIY AT 4 AM THU AND STRENGTHEN TO A 988 MB LOW NEAR
CAPE NAVARIN AT 4 PM THU. THE WEATHER FRONT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
EXTEND FROM BERING STRAIT TO DALL POINT AT 4 AM FRI..
$$

PKZ225-231430-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
329 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-231430-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
329 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-231430-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
329 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-231430-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
329 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-231430-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
329 PM AKDT WED AUG 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.THU...E WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

TF/DJH AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 PM AKDT MON AUG 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX PATTERN FOR NORTHERN ALASKA NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ENERGETIC.

OLD AND WEAKENING LOW NW OF POINT LAY WILL CONT TO DRIFT NWWD AND
WEAKEN. ASSOCD COLD FRONT WEAKENING AND DRIFTING EWD TO THE ALASKA-
YUKON BORDER TUE MORNING. SHOWERS OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN WITH
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE INTERIOR BEHIND THIS
FRONT. MEANWHILE...LOW THAT HAS MOVING EWD ACROSS SIBERIA OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR TUE MORNING AND THEN
MOST LIKELY SPLIT...WITH ONE CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD THRU THE
BERING SEA AND ANOTHER HEADED TOWARD NOME.

ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELPS OVR NW ALASKA LATE
THIS WEEK WITH STRONG WLY FLOW DVLPG MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS WILL BE
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE CENTRAL AND ERN INTR AND WILL END
THE RECORD WARMTH ON THE NORTH SLOPE. WEST COAST WILL STILL BE
DAMP.

NORTH SLOPE...TROF ALOFT MOVING EWD TONIGHT WILL BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS INTO ERN
ZONES...BUT THEN SLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

WEST COAST...RAIN FROM NEXT STORM SHOULD REACH THE SEWARD PEN
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO NW ZONES BY MORNING. WITH THE SFC LOW
SPLITTING AND THE NRN LOW REMAINING WEST OF 170W...ZONES 208 AND
217 LOOK TO GET ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING.

INTERIOR...COLD FRONT LIMPING EWD WITH SHOWERS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF
COOLER AIR FOR TUE. RIDGE REBUILDS WED AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND
DRY WEATHER AGAIN THRU THU BEFORE WLY FLOW BREAKS THROUGH. RAIN IN
THE WLY FLOW WILL DEPEND ON EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND EXACT
DIRECTION OF FLOW.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
WILL MOVE FROM SIBERIA TO THE BERING STRAIT THU NIGHT. CURRENT
MODELS WOULD HAVE THIS BE MORE OF AN ERN NORTON SOUND EVENT BUT
THAT WOULD CHANGE IF LOW TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AMS FOR MON NIGHT INTO WED AM OVER THE DRY CREEK
FIRE...THOUGH ANY RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE SHORT DURATION AND
AMOUNTS.THEN WARMER AND DRY INTO FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MORE RAIN FOR NW ALASKA BUT BASED ON LAST WEEKS RESPONSE NO WWA
FELT TO NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

RT AUG 12