Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Fairbanks, AK

060 
FZAK51 PAFG 171030
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 AM AKDT FRI AUG 17 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-180130-
230 AM AKDT FRI AUG 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 985 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 300 NM
NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 992 MB BY 4 PM AKDT
SATURDAY. 

$$

PKZ225-180130-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
230 AM AKDT FRI AUG 17 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT BY NOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-180130-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
230 AM AKDT FRI AUG 17 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER NOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-180130-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
230 AM AKDT FRI AUG 17 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-180130-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
230 AM AKDT FRI AUG 17 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-180130-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
230 AM AKDT FRI AUG 17 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

DA/CB AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1245 PM AKDT THU AUG 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATELY DEEP UPPER LOW...ABOUT 530-532 DAM AT 500 MB...
CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL CONTINUE
TO WOBBLE AROUND WITH LITTLE NET MOVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO NEAR DALL POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...COMING
INTO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW TO FORM AN EXTENDED
TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI AND BERING SEAS. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE EASTERN ALASKA INTERIOR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
CANADA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY...LEAVING THE NORTHERN ALASKA
MAINLAND IN A LIGHTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY THEN BE REPLACED BY A
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY.

A 985 MB SURFACE LOW ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW IS
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND WILL GRADUALLY FILL
TO AROUND 1000 MB BY SUNDAY. A 994 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA BY 12Z FRIDAY...MOVING TO NEAR DALL
POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPS
TO AROUND 988 MB.

RAIN OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN THE ARCTIC ZONES...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE
AREA DOWNWIND OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MANY AREAS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH
SOME LATER TONIGHT...BUT SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REINFORCED BY SEVERAL SURFACE SYSTEMS AND
SHORT WAVES TROUGHS ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF ZONES 207 AND 208 DURING THE LAST 72 HOURS. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS INCLUDE 5.4 INCHES AT RED DOG MINE...5.3 INCHES AT
TAHINICHOK RAWS...3.4 INCHES AT KIVALINA...3.0 INCHES AT KELLY
STATION. RIVER AND RAIN GAGE DATA IN THIS REGION IS VERY SPARSE...
BUT IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING
HIGH...WITH SOME AT BANKFULL OR ABOVE BANKFULL STAGES. MORE
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 4 INCHES. IN ZONE 217...2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. OVER THE THE REST OF
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE WULIK RIVER BELOW TUTAK CREEK CRESTED AT 15.3 FEET AROUND
6 AM THIS MORNING BUT IS STILL ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE THE PREVIOUS
RECORD HIGH STAGE. ADDITIONAL CRESTS COULD OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT 3 DAYS WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO RED FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ217.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207...WILL BE CANCELLED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ217.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

RF AUG 12