Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

794 
FZAK51 PAFG 092223
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-101330-
223 PM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MON. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ225-101330-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
223 PM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.SUN...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS CALM. FOG.
.MON...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-101330-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
223 PM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-101330-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
223 PM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-101330-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
223 PM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-101330-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
223 PM AKDT SAT JUN 9 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

JUN 12

821 
FZAK51 PAFG 101146
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
346 AM AKDT SUN JUN 10 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-110300-
346 AM AKDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUE AND WEAKEN TO 1028 MB. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ225-110300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
346 AM AKDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-110300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
346 AM AKDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT SOUTH OF ICY
CAPE. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT...EXCEPT NE WINDS 10 KT SOUTH OF ICY CAPE. 
SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-110300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
346 AM AKDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-110300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
346 AM AKDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT BY NOON. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS DECREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-110300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
346 AM AKDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT BY NOON. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS DECREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

DJH/CB JUN 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1144 AM AKDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE MACKENZIE DELTA REGION
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY WESTWARD THROUGH SUN...TO BE CENTERED NEAR
BARROW BY 00Z MON. SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE
INTERIOR AND WEST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...DIMINISHING SOME
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR MON.

SURFACE...
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...TROUGH
AXIS 00Z SAT EXTENDING KALTAG-HEALY-NORTHWAY. TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
SOME AND MIGRATE GENERALLY NWD SAT. TROUGH AXIS 00Z SUN EXTENDING
NOME-KOTZEBUE-ANAKTUVUK PASS-EAGLE.

CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BROAD SWATH OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR EXTENDS E-W ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WWD TO AKZ212-NERN AKZ215.
MODEL FORECAST LIFTED INDEXES TO -2 ON THE GS AND -4 ON THE NAM.
AIRMASS IS HEAVILY MOISTURE- LADEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS 1-1.2
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UNSTABLE AIR. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE MAIN CAUSATIVE FACTORS FOR TODAYS ACTION.

CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
THE AXIS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN
0.9-1.1 INCH OVER MOST OF THE AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE...NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS AND AKZ208. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS IN AKZ205.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...
THERMAL TROUGH OVER INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME...
DRIER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREAS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME STABILIZATION. NAM IS MORE
BULLISH ON INSTABILITY OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/WESTERN INTERIOR THAN THE GFS. WILL LIMIT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHERN
AKZ224 WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

ARCTIC COAST...NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT WEATHER
REGIME. STRATUS WITH PERIODS OF FOG AND PATCHY FLURRIES...DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST. ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST...STRATUS AND FOG
WILL CONTINUE AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING...WITH CLEARING
IN AREAS SOUTH OF WAINWRIGHT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...TEMPERATURES IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED
BY LOCAL WIND FLOW. MOS FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW AND TOO COLD IN AREAS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK...
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER HEIGHTS EXPECTED
EAST OF 160W TUE AND WED WITH NEAR NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
THIS SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE THE OUTLOOK FOR THU AND
FRI AS THE GFS/EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AFTERNOON
RH WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. LOCAL
WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE YUKON FLATS
AND THE SOUTHEAST BROOKS RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. STORM MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A GIVEN
AREA FROM A SINGLE STORM...BUT THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN AREAS WHERE MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR AKZ221-AKZ225-AKZ226.

IN ZONES AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ227...SIGNIFICANT STRATIFORM
RAIN...POSSIBLY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ221-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF JUN 12