Small Craft Advisory 38, NWS Fairbanks, AK

999 
FZAK51 PAFG 052236
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
236 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-061300-
236 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 970 MB LOW 600 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE NORTH. A STRONG
WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO THE BERING
STRAIT BY 4PM MON AND THEN CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST.

$$

PKZ225-061300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
236 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO W 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-061300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
236 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-061300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
236 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT. FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-061300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
236 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. RAIN. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. RAIN. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-061300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
236 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
105 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
NEW MODEL RUNS FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE MUCH MORE IN
LINE WITH EACH OTHER. BOTH MODELS KEEP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN
THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN RUSSIA AND THEN MOVE IT EASTWARD
WHILE DEEPENING IT VERY SUBSTANTIALLY. THE LOW THEN BRINGS IN A
LARGE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.

EXTREME WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN BEFORE VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION
POURS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST...IT WILL PUSH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH MON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS PUSHING IN FROM FAR EASTERN RUSSIA
WILL GET SQUASHED OUT BY MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ON MON AND TUE...IT SLOWS DOWN BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE TO ABOUT THE
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY WED.

THE WEST COAST WILL BE FAIRLY DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL THU
OR SO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVING IN ON THU WHICH WILL
RESUPPLY MOISTURE AGAIN TOT HE WEST COAST ZONES.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN BEFORE TURNING
WESTERLY AND THEN SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING IN ICE TO THE SHORE AROUND BARROW
DURING THIS TIME.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

CF AUG 12