Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Fairbanks, AK

708 
FZAK52 PAFG 182146
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
146 PM AKDT WED JUL 18 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-191415-
146 PM AKDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN INLAND OVER THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY. A WEATHER FRONT
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST ARCTIC OCEAN WILL MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN TO EAST OF BARROW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-191415-
NORTON SOUND-
146 PM AKDT WED JUL 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-191415-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
146 PM AKDT WED JUL 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-191415-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
146 PM AKDT WED JUL 18 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-191415-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
146 PM AKDT WED JUL 18 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
FOG...RAIN.
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

JUL 12

305 
FZAK52 PAFG 191029
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-200130-
229 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN INLAND OVER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY MORNING. 
$$

PKZ200-200015-
NORTON SOUND-
229 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-200130-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
229 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-200130-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
229 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-200130-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
229 AM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

TF/CC JUL 12

195 
FZAK52 PAFG 192223
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-201400-
223 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST THURSDAY
EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE BERING SEA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ200-201400-
NORTON SOUND-
223 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-201400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
223 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-201400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
223 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.FRI...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-201400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
223 PM AKDT THU JUL 19 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

CF/DA JUL 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1243 AM AKDT WED JUL 18 2012

UPDATE ADDS MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
TWO POLAR VORTEXES OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
CYCLONIC TRAJECTORIES AROUND A COMMON CENTER POINT...RESULTING IN
A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ARCTIC SLOPE...BROOKS RANGE...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE MOISTURE
STREAM IS EXPANDING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALREADY COMING INTO VIEW ON THE FAIRBANKS
WSR-88D.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE SOUTHWARD AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THE NORTHWEST
COAST AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OR SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM
THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF BRISK SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE ARCTIC MARINE FORECAST AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE...A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL FUJIWARA
AND BE THE DOMINATE DRIVERS OF THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN AK DURING
THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE NCEP RMOPS RIGHT FROM THE GET GO AT 24 TO
48 HOURS HAVE VERY LOW RELATIVE MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY THAT
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED DUE
TO THE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AK MAINLAND.

ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO CANADA BY FRI EVENING. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN FOR THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR...WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THIS RAIN PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
AREA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
HEAT. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE THE WARMEST AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN GAGE NETWORK IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND INTERIOR ARCTIC
SLOPE IS SPARSE...BUT AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH PROBABLY
FELL OVER A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND INTERIOR
ARCTIC SLOPE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD BE RUNNING AT
LEVELS NEAR BANKFULL. THE NEXT INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE
SURGE WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 0.5
TO 1 INCH EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE...BROOKS
RANGE...AND NORTHERN INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS ENDING 4 PM
THURSDAY. LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING UP
RIVER LEVELS AGAIN...AND BANKFULL OR ABOVE BANKFULL STAGES COULD
OCCUR ON SOME STREAMS. THE SHORT WAVE COULD BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND IN THE ALASKA
RANGE AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

RF/CB