Small Craft Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

816 
FZAK52 PAFG 111148
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
348 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-120300-
348 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST INTO
SAT. 1012 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CHUKOTKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ200-120300-
NORTON SOUND-
348 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-120300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
348 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-120300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
348 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT SOUTH OF CAPE ESPENBERG.
FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-120300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
348 AM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TODAY...NW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

RT/DJH MAY 12

163 
FZAK52 PAFG 112225
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-121330-
225 PM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO SAT OVER THE INTERIOR OF
NORTHERN ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE BERING
SEA ON SAT. WEAK WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA
COAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. 1012 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CHUKOTKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. 

$$

PKZ200-121330-
NORTON SOUND-
225 PM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ210-121330-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
225 PM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-121330-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
225 PM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-121330-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
225 PM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CF/CWA MAY 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
401 AM AKDT THU MAY 10 2012

CORRECTION ADDS MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
OUT THROUGH SUN.

UPPER LOW NOW EAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY FRI EVENING...ABSORBING A WEAKENING LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
A NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
WILL WEAKEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SUN AND BRING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
IN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AND CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR SAT. A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI...DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS
OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND FRI. CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR
REMAINING DRY TODAY AND FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SUN.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SAT NIGHT THAT AN UPPER LOW IN
THE SE BERING SEA WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK
SUNDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES OFF TOWARD THE AK PANHANDLE/HAIDA GWAII
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA. THIS SETS UP MORE OR LESS AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A RIDGE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND THAT MAY MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
AROUND 150W BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NCEP RMOPS HAVE HIGH
RELATIVE MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY EARLY ON WITH LOW RMOPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO REDUCED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. POTENTIAL THAT THE RIDGE GETS
PINCHED OFF AND DRIFTS TOWARD THE NW AK COAST. IF THE RIDGE DOES
BUILD EAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR AND DOES NOT SPLIT IT WILL BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING TO SQUASH ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
AREA FROM THE AK RANGE TO BROOKS RANGE. THE LATEST 00Z/10TH
OPERATIONAL GFS SPLITS THE RIDGE OFF NEAR THE BERING STRAIT
KEEPING A COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MIN RH DOWN TO 25-35 PERCENT AT
MANY SITES IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI EVENING. RED FLAG FUELS NOW EXIST IN AKZ222-AKZ223.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PROBLEM AREAS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

RF/CB MAY 12