Small Craft Advisory 186, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 PM AKST MON DEC 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE OLD COMPLEX LOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN GULF EXPANDING WESTWARD...REASONABLE
ENOUGH GIVEN THE CONTINUED FEED OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
SOUTH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND MERGING WITH THE OLD LOW. BY
THIS TIME TUESDAY...IT WILL HAVE SPLIT THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA...WITH A HIGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER EXTREME
EASTERN RUSSIA PERSISTING...AND A RIDGE PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE LOW ALOFT WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COOLING OVER
OUR WEST COAST ZONES. ALSO...NO GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF CIRRUS (AT LEAST)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT MENTIONED ABOVE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST (AS OPPOSED TO THE
INEVITABLE FLURRIES) ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT ONE...BEGINNING
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. NOT MUCH WIND WITH
THIS ONE THOUGH.

WITH THE FOCUS OF THE ACTION ALOFT MOVING WEST OR SOUTHWEST...
WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERALL IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE COLD
THOUGH...AND THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF WATER VAPOR IN THESE CLOUDS
MAY NOT HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC IN
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND PROBABLY IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
AS WELL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ225-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

DJH DEC 12