Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2012

Small Craft Advisory 185, NWS Fairbanks, AK

December 1, 2012

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Dec 1, 2012, 2:21 PM AKST. It was in force for 37 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Dec 1, 2012, 2:21 PM AKST (23:21 UTC)
Expired: Dec 3, 2012, 2:52 AM AKST
In force: 37 hr
Issued by: NWS Fairbanks, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

620 
FZAK52 PAFG 012321
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
221 PM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-021245-
221 PM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
YUKON DELTA SUN AM. A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING WEST ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE SAT NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA MON AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ARCTIC COAST ON SUN.

$$

PKZ200-021245-
NORTON SOUND-
221 PM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-021245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
221 PM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. FOG.
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-021245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
221 PM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-021245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
221 PM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

DEC 12

3 follow-up statements

332 
FZAK52 PAFG 021157
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
257 AM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-030300-
257 AM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND THE
EASTERN BERING SEA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

PKZ200-030300-
NORTON SOUND-
257 AM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-030300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
257 AM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-030300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
257 AM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-030300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
257 AM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

DA/RF DEC 12

117 
FZAK52 PAFG 022324
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
224 PM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-031245-
224 PM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. A 1016
MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR BARROW AS A
1025 MB LOW BY 9AM MON AND OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL
PERSIST INTO TUE. 

$$

PKZ200-031245-
NORTON SOUND-
224 PM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-031245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
224 PM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-031245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
224 PM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-031245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
224 PM AKST SUN DEC 2 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

DEC 12

834 
FZAK52 PAFG 031152
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 AM AKST MON DEC 3 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-040300-
252 AM AKST MON DEC 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND
EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-040300-
NORTON SOUND-
252 AM AKST MON DEC 3 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-040300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
252 AM AKST MON DEC 3 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-040300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
252 AM AKST MON DEC 3 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-040300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
252 AM AKST MON DEC 3 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

DEC 12

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 1, 5:21 AM AKST, 9 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 1, 5:21 AM AKST, 9 hours before

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
521 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THU. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN THROUGH
MON NIGHT...WITH A COLD TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA
INTERIOR. A BUBBLE HIGH WILL SPLIT OFF FROM THE RIDGE TUE...THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE RECEDING WESTWARD...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND. THE COLDEST AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...
WITH SOME SLIGHT MODERATION THEREAFTER.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR AREAS OS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER
MOST OF THE ARCTIC ZONES THROUGH SUN.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHEN THE COLD SNAP WILL END. THE DEC
1/00Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS NORTHERN ALASKA IN A COLD PATTERN OUT
THROUGH THE END OF THE RUN AT 240 HOURS...WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
HOLDING A MEAN TROUGH POSITION WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT.
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUN INDICATING A COLDER AND DEEPER UPPER LOW
DIVING OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW -30C IN SOME AREAS. THE
BAD NEWS IS WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LOW
POSITION FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...BOTH RUNS ARE INDICATING
A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE 06Z GFS TAKES A SHARP BREAK FROM CONTINUITY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA SATURDAY...BECOMING VERY
STRONG BY MON WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED DUE TO ITS
MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND GENERAL SUPPORT FROM
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

RF DEC 12

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 1, 2:21 PM AKST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
221 PM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

AKZ218-020130-
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...ARCTIC VILLAGE...WISEMAN...COLDFOOT...
CHANDALAR D.O.T. CAMP...INIAKUK LAKE
221 PM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...BREEZY WITH COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR PASSES THROUGH MONDAY...

NEAR PASSES...NORTH WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 MPH TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 30 BELOW TONIGHT AND TO 40 BELOW
SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE AFTER MONDAY.

AKZ225-226-020130-
DENALI-EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
221 PM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...BREEZY WITH COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR PASSES THROUGH MONDAY...

NEAR PASSES...NORTH WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 MPH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 30 MPH SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 30 BELOW
TONIGHT AND TO 40 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD CONDITIONS COULD
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER.

AKZ220>222-020130-
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FORT YUKON...VENETIE...CENTRAL...CIRCLE...
STEVENS VILLAGE...BEAVER...CHALKYITSIK...BIRCH CREEK...
CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS...EAGLE SUMMIT...TWELVEMILE SUMMIT...NENANA...
ANDERSON...TANANA...MINTO...MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...
LAKE MINCHUMINA...LIVENGOOD...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...
EIELSON AFB...ESTER...NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...
FOX...CHATANIKA...CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
221 PM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...BREEZY WITH COLD WIND CHILLS OVER SUMMITS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

OVER SUMMITS...NORTH WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 40 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD WIND
CHILLS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 1, 2:21 PM AKST	Heavy Freezing Spray Warning	AFG		12 days

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012 Every small craft advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.