Small Craft Advisory 174, NWS Fairbanks, AK

620 
FZAK52 PAFG 061129
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-070230-
229 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WEST COAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE 800 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE 982 MB NEAR DUTCH
HARBOR THURSDAY NIGHT. A 1005 MB LOW 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC TO BE 800 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARROW AT 3PM WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE EAST THEREAFTER. THE WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA TO NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND
EXTEND FROM BARROW TO POINT HOPE AT 9 PM TUESDAY...THEN WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH
SLOPE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ200-070230-
NORTON SOUND-
229 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-070230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
229 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-070230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
229 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-070230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
229 AM AKST TUE NOV 6 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

NOV 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
528 AM AKST MON NOV 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA FROM FORT YUKON TO
30 MILES EAST OF FAIRBANKS TO DENALI PARK TO KING SALMON WILL MOVE
TO DAWSON CANADA TO ANCHORAGE 9PM TUE AND TO SOUTHEAST OF NORTHWAY
BY 9AM WED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL SPREAD EAST
OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE ARCTIC WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH. A
WEAK LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NUNIVAK ISLAND
9AM WED THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST.

SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE WILL MOVE
TO 65 NORTH LATITUDE 3AM WED. TROUGH FROM 300 MILES NORTH OF
BARTER ISLAND TO 60 MILES WEST OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE ALONG THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND INTO CANADA TONIGHT, 1006 MB LOW
NORTHWEST OF WRANGELL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 660 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARROW AT 3AM WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT MOVING EAST TO BARROW TO
KOTZEBUE 9AM TUE AND TO 140 W LONGITUDE 9PM TUE. COLD FRONT MOVING
TO BARROW TO LISBURNE AT 9PM TUE AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO
WAINWRIGHT 3PM WED. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENING
THROUGH WED.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN SHORT TERM. IN MEDIUM TERM GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER AFTER 3AM SAT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WHICH FORMS
OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MOVES TO SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND EARLY SAT.

NORTH SLOPE...WEST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY OVER THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT SEA COAST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AFTER THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER THE
WESTERN COASTAL ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. EXPECT SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. BLOWING SNOW AND CHANCE OF
SNOW SPREADING EAST WITH WARM FRONT AND CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY
INTO WED...AFTER WHICH THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WEAKENS.
THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH ICE NOW ALONG MOST OF THE COAST WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SURF INDUCED EROSION PROBLEMS...BUT WILL KEEP
EYE ON THIS FOR TUE.

WESTERN ALASKA...FOR COASTAL ZONES NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT AS
WELL AS 208 THE LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF WARM FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO WEST FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW TUE INTO WED THIS SAME AREA AS WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. UPPER LOW TRACKING TO NUNIVAK ISLAND WED WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS TO MAINLY ZONE 214 THEN. ELSEWHERE LITTLE IF ANY
WEATHER.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
EAST OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS IT SHIFTS EAST SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. OTHERWISE QUIET AND SOMEWHAT COLDER. AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS YET THIS
WINTER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.
&&

JL NOV 12