Small Craft Advisory 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

567 
FZAK51 PAFG 081145
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
345 AM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-090015-
345 AM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST TO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL MOVE TO LIE ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGE SUN NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN IN
PLACE. 

$$

PKZ225-090015-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
345 AM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-090015-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
345 AM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-090015-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
345 AM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-090015-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
345 AM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-090015-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
345 AM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

JUL 12

729 
FZAK51 PAFG 082156
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-091300-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR
ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH TO LIE INLAND OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ225-091300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-091300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-091300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-091300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-091300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

DJH/SDB JUL 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
642 AM AKDT SAT JUL 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR SUN THROUGH TUE...AND MAY PERSIST LONGER. THE RIDGE FROM
NW CANADA ACROSS NE ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH TUE. THIS MEANS
CONDITIONS WILL COOL SUN THROUGH TUE.

MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED OR GREATER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AND
SUN.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NW ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION.
THE 1ST SHORT WAVE FROM NORTON SOUND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE WILL
DISSIPATE OVER NW ALASKA TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS.
THE 2ND SHORT WAVE NOW OVER THE SE INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO
DENALI TO EAGLE BY 4PM SAT AND TO MCGRATH TO BETTLES BY 4PM SUN.
THIS WILL ADD MORE MOISTURE AND HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF IT.
THE 3RD SHORT WAVE NOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE BY 4AM SUN AND TO DENALI TO ARCTIC VILLAGE BY
4PM SUN...AND TO MCGRATH TO BETTLES BY 4AM SUN. PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS WILL RISE TO ABOVE ONE INCH AHEAD OF THIS ALONG WITH
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL
SIGNIFICANTLY SE OF THIS TROUGH.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 1-2C WARMER TODAY THAN FRI ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE
50S AND 60S ALONG THE COAST AND 70S AND LOW 80S INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM SUN EXPECT THE SE INTERIOR WHERE
TEMPS WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY SUN. ON MON MOST OF THE INTERIOR
WILL SEE COOLING.

SURFACE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST TO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. THIS WILL CAUSE
EAST WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND NW WINDS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG TO
REMAIN OVER THOSE AREAS.

A WEAK THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF
ALASKA WILL STRENGTHEN SUN AND MOVE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND WEST
COAST MON CAUSING WINDS T0 INCREASE ALL AREAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE COPPER BASIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN
WILL CAUSE GAPS FLOW WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANG PASSES TONIGHT AND
SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLLUTIONS
IN THE SHORT RANGE. MUCH UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TUE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
WELL OVER 1000 EXPECTED. SUN SHOULD HAVE ALMOST AS MANY BUT MORE
RAIN AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL EXPECT 1-1.5 INCH RAIN TONIGHT AND SUN IN ALASKA RANGE
MOVING TO WESTERN INTERIOR SUN. NEED TO WATCH FOR SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IN ALASKA RANGE STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

TANANA RIVER REMAINS HIGH BUT IS NOW DROPPING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JB JUL 12