Small Craft Advisory 160, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
334 PM AKDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
PATTERN CHANGE NOW UNDERWAY AS HIGH ALOFT RETROGRADES AND TROF DIGS
IN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

AT THE SFC...1006MB SFC LOW 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY DRFTG SWD. 1045
MB HIGH OVR WRN CHUKOTKA WOBBLING AROUND BUT BASICALLY PRSTG. COLD
FRONT MOVG SWD OVR NW CST TONIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY SWD MON AND MON
NIGHT OVR THE REST OF THE CWA. SECONDARY COLD TROF MOVG ONTO THE
ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND

NORTH SLOPE...FLOW BTWN THE HIGH ARCTIC LOW AND THE CHUKOTKA HIGH
PRODUCING TOGETHER PRODUCING LONG FETCH W-NW WINDS. SECONDARY TROF
WILL TURN THE WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE NORTH...INCREASING SURF ON
THE WRN ARCTIC SHORE. MEANWHILE...STRONG WEST WINDS ERN ARCTIC
WILL DIMINISH A BIT BUT NOT END OVERNIGHT. HENCE HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES CONTINUE.

WEST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY.

IN THE INTERIOR...PESKY ST/FOG PSTG BUT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE. AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PCPN OUT OF THE ST COULD BE S OR ZL- UNTIL SEEDER CLOUDS
ARRIVE OVER TOP. FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE
SHOULD BRING 6-12 HOURS OF SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS NOT LIKELY TO BE
MUCH...MOSTLY IN THE TWO INCHES OR LESS RANGE.

MID-RANGE...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC PATTERN..WITH
RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 160E AND TROF ABOUT 150W. DETAILS DIFFER...BUT
COOL WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN ERN ZONES AND COLD AND
DRY...XCP FOR ONSHORE FLOW AREAS IN THE WEST. PROLONGED NLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO PUSH/FORM ICE TOWARD THE NORTH SLOPE COAST...AND ONCE
THAT HAPPENS TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...LONG DURATION NLY WINDS
OVR THE CHUKCHI SEA BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE HAVE WINDS STRAIGHT NORTH
OR EVEN A BIT EAST OF DUE NORTH...IN WHICH CASE THE THREAT TO
SHISHMAREF IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ204-AKZ207.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

RT OCT 12