Small Craft Advisory 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

318 
FZAK51 PAFG 042244
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
244 PM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-051345-
244 PM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 80 NORTH
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA ON THU.

$$

PKZ225-051345-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
244 PM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-051345-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
244 PM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-051345-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
244 PM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-051345-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
244 PM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-051345-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
244 PM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

TF/CC JUL 12

147 
FZAK51 PAFG 051031
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
231 AM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-060145-
231 AM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN NEAR 80 NORTH/170 WEST
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ON THU.

$$

PKZ225-060145-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
231 AM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-060145-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
231 AM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-060145-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
231 AM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-060145-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
231 AM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-060145-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
231 AM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CWA/DA JUL 12

696 
FZAK51 PAFG 052256
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
256 PM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-061400-
256 PM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN 600 NM NORTH OF BARROW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

$$

PKZ225-061400-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
256 PM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-061400-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
256 PM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-061400-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
256 PM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-061400-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
256 PM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-061400-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
256 PM AKDT THU JUL 5 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CC/RT JUL 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
532 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...A 531 DM LOW OVER 300 MILES WEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE
STEADILY SOUTHEAST AND BY THU EVENING WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST
AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A 569 DM LOW CENTERED NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND WILL EXPAND WESTWARD
AND BY THU AFTERNOON WILL BE 569 DM 350 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW.
A 547 DM LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE WED NIGHT.

SURFACE...A BROAD MULTI-CENTERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST BERING SEA AND WEST COAST WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY
TODAY UNDER A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW. BY FRI MORNING A
SINGLE LOW WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA TO THE CHUKCHI SEA WED NIGHT AND BY
FRI NIGHT THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BE UNDER
THE EFFECTS OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH
OF 80 NORTH WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE BEAUFORT AND
CHUKCHI SEAS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA.

WEST COAST...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

INTERIOR...THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL
BRING THE MOST NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
AND SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. A GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL
REDUCE THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS ON FRI. AN EASTERLY WAVE MAY BRING AN
INCREASE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CLOUDS AND MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY GREATER THAN 40
PERCENT OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL KEEP FIRE START UPS AT A MINIMUM
THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHISANA...NABESNA...AND
TANANA RIVERS CONTINUE. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS ALONG THESE RIVERS. WATER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND AN
INCREASED AMOUNT OF DEBRIS IS EXPECTED.

THE TANANA RIVER GAUGE AT FAIRBANKS WAS NEAR 23.6 FEET AT 2AM AKDT
WED. FLOOD STAGE IS 24.5 FEET. THE RIVER LEVEL AT FAIRBANKS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN
FALLING SLOWLY. FURTHER UPSTREAM...THE TANANA RIVER AT BIG DELTA
HAS BEGUN A VERY SLOW FALL FROM A PEAK OF 21.56 FEET TUE EVENING.
FLOOD STAGE AT BIG DELTA IS 23 FEET. DOWNSTREAM FROM FAIRBANKS...
THE TANANA RIVER AT NENANA WAS 10.05 FEET AT 2AM AKDT WED. THE
RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE TO 10.51 FEET THU...THEN LEVEL OFF AND
BEGIN A VERY SLOW FALL ON FRI. FLOOD STAGE FOR THE TANANA RIVER AT
NENANA IS 12.5 FEET.

THE NEBESNA RIVER AT NORTHWAY VILLAGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST EARLY
THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 24.4 FEET...THEN BEGIN A SLOW FALL.

THE CHESANA RIVER AT NORTHWAY ROAD BRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
13.13 FEET BY AROUND MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. FLOOD STAGE IS 12.5 FEET.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ224.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.
&&

DA JUL 12