Small Craft Advisory 154, NWS Fairbanks, AK

078 
FZAK51 PAFG 261119
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-270230-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1017 MB LOW 400 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
WEAKEN TO 1021 MB NEAR THE MACKENZIE DELTA BY SAT NIGHT. A 1010 MB
LOW OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA WILL MOVE T0 500 NM NORTH OF BARROW BY
SAT EVENING AT 1002 MB AND TO 350 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
BY 4PM PM SUN.

$$

PKZ225-270230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-270230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-270230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT. SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-270230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-270230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
319 AM AKDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

EWP/SDB OCT 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
132 PM AKDT THU OCT 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG BLOCKING HIGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN...THEN WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND BE PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES DOWN OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND DEVELOPS INTO AN
EXPANSIVE COLD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL/ERN AK
MAINLAND BY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE NRN AK INTERIOR AND WEST COAST BUT WEAKEN A FEW MB
THROUGH SAT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS.
WHILE THE AIR MASS TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY
COOLER...CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
SHARPLY.

OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 79N/180W WILL MOVE
SEWD TO NEAR 75N/140W BY NOON FRI FILLING TO 1020 MB.
A NEW 1007 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ABOUT 600 MILES W OF
WRANGEL ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN TRAVEL ON AN ARCING COURSE
ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC...THEN DIVE SEWD TOWARDS THE WRN CANADA
ARCHIPELAGO BY MON...DEEPENING A FEW MB DURING THE PERIOD. BRISK
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST
FROM BARROW EAST BY SUN EVENING...WITH GALE FORCE WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ZONE 204 COAST SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
A TROUGH SWINGING SWD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSIURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE...PRODUCING BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
ARCTIC...WITH GALES OVER THE WESTERN MARINE AREAS. THE

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
ELEVATED SURF AND A SMALL RISE IN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST BEGINNING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE REST OF THE COAST FROM THE BARROW AREA EASTWARD
SAT EVENING OR LATER SAT NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SAT EVENING THROUGH
SUN NIGHT WHERE WESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED. BEACH EROSION
AND POSSIBLY SOME COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST. SEAS IN MARINE AREA PKZ245 COULD BE AS HIGH AS 11
FT. IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO PUT UP A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...BUT
IF THE MODELS MAINTAIN THEIR CONTINUITY...AN ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO
BE ISSUED FRIDAY. THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF RUNS ARE NOW IN...AND
THEY AGREE WELL AND HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PRECEDING RUNS.
FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD...SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...ELEVATED SURF AND
SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FROM BARROW WESTWARD DUE TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS 25-40 KT OVER A LONG FETCH OF
OPEN WATER.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

RF OCT 12