Small Craft Advisory 152, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Issued

Oct 24, 2012, 2:27 PM AKDT (22:27 UTC)

Expired

Oct 25, 2012, 5:30 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Fairbanks, AK

464 
FZAK51 PAFG 242227
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-251330-
227 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
1042 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHWEST BEAUFORT SEA WILL MOVE TO MOULD BAY
ON PRINCE PATRICK ISLAND BY 4 AM THU. 1044 MB HIGH WILL HOLD OVER
THE ALASKA MAINLAND. 1012 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. IT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD MACKENZIE BAY. AT 4 AM FRI IT WILL BE A 1019 MB LOW 400 NM
NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY.

$$

PKZ225-251330-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
227 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-251330-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
227 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-251330-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
227 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-251330-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
227 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ245-251330-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
227 PM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

RF/JM OCT 12

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 24, 11:09 AM AKDT, 3 hours 18 minutes earlier.

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1109 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG BLOCKING HIGH ALOFT CENTER OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SAT...THEN BE PUSHED INTO THE FAR
WESTERN BERING SEA BY MON AS A BROAD UPPER LOW DROPS
SWD INTO THE AK MAINLAND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST
OVER NRN AK S OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH SUN...THEN CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLDER...THIS MAY BE
MITIGATED AT THE SURFACE BY THE CLOUD COVER.

OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...A 1009 MB 250 NM W OF WRANGEL IS
WILL MOVE ON AN ARCING TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
UPPER HIGH...FILLING TO AROUND 1022 MB 200 NM N OF THE
MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRINGE
CIRCULATION OF THIS LOW WILL BRING BRISK SW WINDS TO THE
ARCTIC COAST FROM BARROW THU...AND BRISK WEST WINDS TO THE
CNTRL/ERN ARCTIC COAST THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE DURATION
OF THE BRISK WINDS...AROUND 25-30 MPH...IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HIGH SURF OR BEACH EROSION
PROBLEMS.

A SECOND SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW...TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK
ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ALONG THE WRN ARCTIC COAST...W WINDS TO AROUND 25
MPH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT NIGHT...BECOMING NW SUN AND
CONTINUING INTO TUN NIGHT. OVER THE CNTRL/ERN ARCTIC
COAST...BRISK W WINDS DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT...CONTINUING
OVER THE CNTRL ARCTIC COAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND OVER
THE ERN ARCTIC COAST THROUGH MON MORNING. THE HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH 30-40 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS
OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF
APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRESSURE PATTERN
AND WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
WEST WINDS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE
ELEVATED SURF AND A SMALL RISE IN SEA LEVEL ALONG MUCH
OF THE ARCTIC COAST. BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR. THE HIGHEST
SURF AND GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF BEACH EROSION WILL BE ALONG
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. AN ADVISORY MAY NEEDED LATER IN
TIME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT AND AS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

RF OCT 12

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.