Small Craft Advisory 150, NWS Fairbanks, AK

979 
FZAK52 PAFG 232207
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
207 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-241315-
207 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1040 MB HIGH 350 NM N OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
550 NM N OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 4 PM WED AND BECOME
AN ELONGATED 1034 MB RIDGE FROM BANKS ISLAND NORTHWARD 
BY 4 PM THU. A 1007 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 350 NM W OF
WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4 AM WED AND MOVE TO 400 NM N OF 
WRANGEL ISLAND BY 4 AM THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THE ALASKA INTERIOR.


$$

PKZ200-241315-
NORTON SOUND-
207 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 5 KT BECOMING E 10 KT. SEAS 
BUILDING TO 2 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS CALM.
.FRI...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS CALM.
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS CALM.
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-241315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
207 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT W OF ST LAWRENCE 
ISLAND. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT W OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-241315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
207 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS CALM.
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS CALM.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-241315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
207 PM AKDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

RF/CC OCT 12

938 
FZAK52 PAFG 241211
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
411 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-250315-
411 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
1044 MB HIGH WILL HOLD OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND. IT WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH THU.

$$

PKZ200-250315-
NORTON SOUND-
411 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-250315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
411 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-250315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
411 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-250315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
411 AM AKDT WED OCT 24 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

TF/JK OCT 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1208 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...CURRENT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z THU.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC 12Z THU THROUGH
12Z FRI. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPING TUE. 500 MB HEIGHTS IN
THE HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD TO AROUND 575 DAM BY WED. OVER THE
NORTHERN AK MAINLAND...HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
HIGH ARCTIC ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN DIVE SEWD INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL TAKES THE SHORT WAVE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS AFTER 00Z THU.

SURFACE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NRN AK MAINLAND AND THE
BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS
THE HIGH ARCTIC...A SURFACE SYSTEM ABOUT 500 NM W OF WRANGEL
ISLAND AROUND 12Z WED WILL BE CARRIED ALONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
CURRENT MODEL FORECAST POSITIONS FOR 12Z THU AGREE WELL WITH A
MEAN POSITION NEAR 78N/180W...FORECAST CENTRAL PRESSURE VARIES
FROM 1004 TO 1012 MB. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY 12Z FRI AS
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF INCREASE.... WITH THE
ECMWF WEAKENING THE SYSTEM MORE BUT TAKING IT ON A COURSE CLOSER
TO THE NRN AK COAST THAN THE GFS. THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE LOW
CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE ARCTIC COAST. BRISK S TO SW
WINDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM BARROW WWD WED
EVENING...SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED NIGHT... THEN BECOMING WESTERLY
AND EXPANDING TO THE ERN ARCTIC COAST BY THU EVENING. CURRENT GFS
DEPICTS THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS...MOSTLY 25-30 KT. IN THE SHORT
TERM...A 1006 MB LOW ABOUT 100 NM NE OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC...WEAKENING TO 1025-1030 MB NEAR
81N/120W BY TUE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON THE ARCTIC COAST. INTERIOR WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
BUT WITH SOME AREAS OF LOW STRATUS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...ELEVATED SURF AND
A SMALL RISE IN SEA LEVEL POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
IF THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ON THE GFS MODEL BECOME REALITY.
ELEVATED SURF AND SEA LEVELS COULD PERSIST ALONG THE ERN
ARCTIC COAST INTO SAT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

RF OCT 12