Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS Fairbanks, AK

053 
FZAK51 PAFG 032126
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
126 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-041230-
126 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF
80 NORTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. A 1001 MB THERMAL LOW OVER THE 
NORTHERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

$$

PKZ225-041230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
126 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-041230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
126 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-041230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
126 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-041230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
126 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-041230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
126 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CWA/TF JUL 12

679 
FZAK51 PAFG 041158
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
358 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-050100-
358 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA TO THE
CHUKCHI SEA WED NIGHT AND BY FRI NIGHT THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 80 NORTH WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$

PKZ225-050100-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
358 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER NOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-050100-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
358 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT...DIMINISHING AROUND NOON. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-050100-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
358 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-050100-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
358 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-050100-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
358 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

DA/DJH JUL 12

474 
FZAK51 PAFG 041750 AAA
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
950 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

UPDATED PKZ225...PKZ230...PKZ235...PKZ240...PKZ245

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-050330-
950 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA TO THE
CHUKCHI SEA WED NIGHT AND BY FRI NIGHT THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 80 NORTH WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$

PKZ225-050330-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
950 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-050330-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
950 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-050330-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
950 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-050330-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
950 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-050330-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
950 AM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

DA/DJH/TF JUL 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
306 PM AKDT MON JUL 2 2012

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...
A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MAYO IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO 150
MILES EAST OF NORTHWAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WOBBLE AROUND
SLOWLY IN A CYCLONIC TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON HANDLING THIS SYSTEM...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CARRIES THIS
FEATURE AS A CLOSED CENTER THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE MEANING IT
OUT INTO A TROUGH.

A DEEP 526 DAM UPPER LOW NEAR 67N/163E IS PROGGED TO MORE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND BY TUE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RUNS OF
THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN GEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION FOR TUE AFTERNOON...00Z ECMWF AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITIONS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
BY WED AFTERNOON THE LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY BE OVER BRISTOL BAY OR
THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR AND ARCTIC REGIONS
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WEAKLY CYCLONIC EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE.

SURFACE...
992 MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
TUE WHILE A NEW CENTER DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND MOVES
EASTWARD. ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION FOR THE NEW LOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IS AROUND 50-100 MILES WEST OF DALL POINT. THE MOST
LIKELY LOW POSITION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER OUTER
BRISTOL BAY. A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIE EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA INTERIOR. QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN PUTS THE MEAN CENTER NEAR KUSKOKWIM BAY BY 12Z WED...
AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AGREES WELL ON THIS POSITION. THE CANADIAN
GEM IS POSITION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. FOR 12Z WED...
THE 12Z ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
FOR THIS FEATURE...OPERATIONAL GFS CALLS FOR A FEW MB WEAKER
CENTER WITH CONSIDERABLY SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN THE ECMWF
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN AS WELL.

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS WRAPAROUND SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR...ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF THE WEST COAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEAKENING GULF OF ANADYR
LOW AND THE NEW CENTER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE INTERIOR
ARCTIC PLAIN SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS.

ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST...AREAS OF FOG REDEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A WEAKLY
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ALOFT AROUND A MEAN LOW CENTER OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL. THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR.
ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN COULD INCREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ISSUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GOODPASTER RIVER AT POGO MINE IS EXPECTED
TO CREST AT A LITTLE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FALLING TONIGHT. HIGH WATER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE GOODPASTER RIVER AS WELL. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUED HIGH LEVELS ON THE
GOODPASTER RIVER...AND RISES IN THE LEVELS OF THE SALCHA...
NABESNA...SALCHA...AND TANANA RIVERS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ224-226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

RF JUL 12