Small Craft Advisory 129, NWS Fairbanks, AK

708 
FZAK51 PAFG 081152
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
352 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-090045-
352 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1010 MB OVER BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THIS LOW TO PRUDHOE BAY TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AND YUKON DELTA BY 4PM MON.
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA ON TUE. 

$$

PKZ225-090045-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
352 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-090045-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
352 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TODAY...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-090045-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
352 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TODAY...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-090045-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
352 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-090045-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
352 AM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

OCT 12

743 
FZAK51 PAFG 082156
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
156 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-091300-
156 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1040MB HIGH OVER CHUKOTKA WILL BRIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE OF
ALASKA THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ225-091300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
156 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-091300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
156 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-091300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
156 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-091300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
156 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-091300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
156 PM AKDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JK/RT OCT 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
620 AM AKDT SUN OCT 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
STRONG FLAT RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORT WAVES
MOVE FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SE ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA.
MOIST SW FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.
FLOW WILL TURN NW MON PM WITH THE FIRST STRONG SHORT WAVE
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, DRIER AIR AND SOME SNOW TO
NORTHERN ALASKA. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN COOL FROM TUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MEANING THE UNSEASONABLY WARM FALL SEASON ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA IS COMING TO AN END.

SURFACE...
A 1009 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO BANKS
ISLAND BY 4AM MON. THIS IS CAUSING SW WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST.

A 1010 MB LOW 50 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY WILL MOVE TO 50 NM
EAST OF POINT LAY AS A 1016 MB LOW BY 4PM SUN AND THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE. WINDS 15-25 KT AROUND THE LOW CENTER
WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS. THIS IS STILL
CAUSING HIGH SURF AT KIVALINA WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS WINDS DECREASE.

A COLD FRONT FROM POINT LAY TO THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE EAST TO
HOWARD PASS TO SELAWIK TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 4PM SUN...AND TO OLD
CROW TO TANANA TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 4PM MON...AND TO NORTHWAY TO
DENALI TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 4PM TUE. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND N
WINDS.

A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO BETHEL TO
CHICKEN BY 4PM SUN AND REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH 4AM MON...
THEN START TO RETREAT S AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG FRONT WITH AMOUNTS OF .50-1.00
INCH THROUGH MON. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE 0C
ISOTHERM AT 850 MB MOVING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS MEANS WE EXPECT MOSTLY ALL RAIN WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW AT ELEVATION MON NW
OF THE FRONT...AND AT VALLEY FLOORS MON NIGHT AND TUE AM AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT. EXPECT
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW AT ELEVATIONS MON AND MON NIGHT...WITH LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN VALLEYS MON NIGHT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 KT ALONG THE WEST COAST MON AS THIS
FRONT MOVES N AND CAUSES THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN. WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLLUTIONS THROUGH TUE.
PREFER THE GFS PRECIPITATION AND FRONTAL MOVEMENTS SINCE IT
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
W WINDS 15-25 KT ARE STILL CAUSING HIGH SURF AT KIVALINA WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS DECREASE.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ARCTIC COAST THU-FRI WILL HAVE A LONG
NW FETCH AND COULD CAUSE HIGH WATER ISSUES ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA
COAST THU NIGHT AND FRI BUT STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF .50-1.00 INCH LATE TODAY THROUGH
MON SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JB OCT 12