Small Craft Advisory 127, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
325 PM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH ENERGY PATTERN FOR NORTHERN ALASKA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
STRONG RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SERN GULF OF ALASKA BUILDS NWWD A
BIT...WITH INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT OVR NEAR ALL THE CWA.
COMPLICATING THIS IS A BUILDING RIDGE OVR CHUKOTKA...WHICH SHOULD
LINK WITH THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE BY MID-WEEK. BROAD LOW ALOFT
DEVLPG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

THE 983 MB LOW NOW IN NORTH OF GAMBELL STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
HANDLED WELL BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS. IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS
SFC CENTER MOVING STEADILY NWD TODAY. GFS BASED STORM SURGE
FORECAST FOR SRN SEWARD PEN SINCE THURSDAY MODEL HAS SERIOUSLY
UNDERDONE...WITH MAX OBSERVED SURGE AT NOME AT 5.9 FEET THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THIS HISTORY WE HAVE GONE WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING...EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AN LARGELY CONFINED TO
UNALAKLEET...FOR ZONE 212.

WAVE MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE IS
EVIDENT ON IMAGERY OVR SW ALASKA. THIS FEATURE IS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AN INTO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND SRN INTERIOR. THE PHASE OF THE PCPN AT
THAT TIME WILL A TOUGH CALL...THOUGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE
SGFNTLY LOWER THAN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NORTH SLOPE...TEMPS WILL ONLY START TO COOL TOMORROW...AND BY
SUNDAY WILL BE DEFINITELY COOLER...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

SOME DIFFS IN THE MID-RANGE BUT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FAIRLY STRONG SFC
HIGH RIDGING FROM CHUKOTKA EWD ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE AND NRN
INTERIOR FOR MID WEEK...WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SRN
BERING SEA TO WRN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY DRY
PATTERN FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA. TEMPS COOLER BUT AREAS
WITHOUT A SNOW PACK IT WILL BE HARD TO BE SGFNTLY BELOW NORMAL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ212.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

RT OCT 12